Friday, July 27, 2018
GDP came in pretty good as expected but the Dow lost 76 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still trending lower. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ getting smashed. The short term technical indicators are now rolling over. I do believe that it's time to look at the index puts on any bounce from here. RUT got clobbered today as well and closed below its 50 day moving average. I think what we have here is a case of this is as good as it gets. What will drive the market higher from here? Earnings have been hit or miss, with some stocks being taken out to the wood shed. We are in a seasonally weak period for stocks as well. No summer doldrums today as the VIX surged up to its 200 day moving average. I'll be taking a long look at the SPY August puts next week. GE was off almost a dime on light volume. GE has lost its leadership role for the market and I may simply stop reporting it. Gold lost a few bucks as both the US dollar and US interest rates had a small decline despite the robust GDP report. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. My GDX September calls remain solidly in the red. The seasonally strength that I was looking for hasn't showed up yet. This trade may very well end up being another loser at this rate. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 now has a bearish topping pattern on it after todays price action. The short term technical indicators have rolled over as well. I will of course look things over again this weekend but the evidence suggests that index puts will be the way to go from here. Although I was looking for new all time highs after the price action early this week, the market has changed. I will try and change with it. The signs are out there that a decline is in the works and has already started for the small caps. So I will be keeping a close eye on things as we start next week, hoping for an entry point for the puts. If we simply keep falling from here then it will be too late for me. We've got the end of the month next week followed by the employment report on Friday. There's also a Fed meeting in the middle of the week but that should be a non event. No change in rates is expected. Asia was mixed again last night with Europe higher. I'll be going over the charts again this weekend but I'm pretty sure that we'll be heading lower from here. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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