Thursday, July 26, 2018
Another mixed bag today as the Dow gained 112 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with losses in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. The summation index is still trending lower. Facebook stock got slammed today and that led to the overall market weakness. We'll get the first look at the 2nd quarter GDP tomorrow and I expect some movement off of that. Which way is the question. The short term technical indicators are still overbought for the S&P. This condition won't last forever but trying to predict the rollover is impossible. GE was little changed again on average volume. Gold fell $9 on the futures as the US dollar had a good day. The XAU dropped 2 1/3, while GDX lost 3/8. Volume was good. Once again the gold shares have acted worse than the metal itself. This is bearish as the gold shares simply remain oversold. Tomorrows GDP report could be the clincher for a downside break down completely. Mt GDX September calls are solidly in the red and it may be time to simply take the loss here. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. RUT turned back up today and that may be a good sign for the overall market. But we didn't really get any good follow through to the upside from yesterdays gains with the exception of the Dow. Yesterday it looked like we were on our way to new all time highs for the S&P. After today it doesn't look like that so much. Tomorrow could get interesting. We'll be keeping an eye on things for sure. There's still a possibility of a positive RSI divergence on the daily gold chart. But it will have to get moving to the upside soon or that divergence won't mean anything. The action in the gold shares kind of says that it won't. Europe rallied and Asia was mixed in last nights trading. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
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