Monday, July 30, 2018
Heading lower today as the Dow fell 144 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving down. It's no secret that we're heading lower. Rallies can be sold in my humble opinion. I do have an open order for the SPY August puts out there. Whether or not it gets filled will depend on if we get some kind of snap back rally or not. It may just be too late and we simply decline from here. End of the month tomorrow, the Fed on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday. So there will be plenty for the market to chew on going forward this week. The VIX has popped up to its 200 day moving average. The small stocks have rolled over. GE was up a dime on light volume. Gold fell a couple bucks and the US dollar was lower as well. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on very light volume. My GDX September call position is solidly in the red. Will the seasonality ever kick in? Mentally I'm feeling OK. There is no doubt that the tone of the market has changed to favor the bears. We are in the seasonal weal period for stocks. All they need to head lower is an excuse. I can only hope for some kind of rally this week in an attempt to establish a short position. I do not want to chase things here but I'm pretty sure that sellers will have the upper hand for a while. I am a believer in the bearish candlestick pattern on the daily S&P 500 chart. So for now I'll just wait and see if my open order gets filled in the near term. The gold trade is out to September so I'll give it a little more time. Europe and Asia were lower in last nights trade. We'll close out the month of July tomorrow.
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