A positive Friday the 13th for the Dow as it gained 94 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is moving up but not with conviction.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The S&P 500 closed just above 2800.  It seems as though we're at the moment of truth for the S&P and whether it will get through 2800.  The volume on the rise has been pretty light and it will have to pick up to make me a believer in the rally going through 2800.  Option expiration week is upon us and that is usually a plus for the bulls.  We remain short term overbought.  GE was off a dime on average volume.  Gold dropped $5 and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume.  I adjusted down my buy price for the GDX September calls again.  The bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly candlestick chart says next week should see some downside.  Gold is oversold on a daily and weekly basis.  But it needs to hold the 1235 to 1240 level or I don't know how far it could drop.  I'm still willing to attempt the GDX trade here based on the seasonal factor but there's no guarantee that it will work every year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're still at the mercy of the headlines but haven't had any news of late to affect the stock market.  Earnings are coming out and they're expected to be good.  I'm now looking at the SPY August puts.  If my thesis that the rally from 2009 is over, we shouldn't hit new all time highs in the S&P 500 going forward.  RUT is generally a leader and it has begun to stall here.  There is also a potential negative RSI divergence on its weekly chart.  The VIX got below 12 today and is oversold.  Hopefully going out to August will give this idea some time to work.  I'll have to double check everything over the weekend.  Light volume remains a concern.  Asia and Europe showed gains overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.