Tuesday, July 17, 2018
We had a one day reversal back to the upside as the Dow gained 55 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The NASDAQ hit a new all time high. The VIX is back to the 12 level but I don't think it will go much lower. But what do I know? Maybe we are going to new all time highs on the S&P 500 as well. The Fed chief spoke today and the market liked what it heard. I'm still looking at the SPY August puts. We remain overbought for the S&P both short and medium term. GE was off about 1/4 on average volume. Gold took a hit today with the futures down a dozen. The US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on better volume. The gold shares acted much better than the price of gold and that is usually a positive. But gold has broken its near term support here, so I can't really feel too bullish. My open order for the GDX September calls was filled. So the next trade is on. Plenty of time for this trade to work out if the usual positive seasonal effect takes place. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. We finally had a decent close above the 2800 level for the S&P 500. This occurred despite poor earnings from NFLX, which sent things lower at the open. This can only be seen as a positive, as the market rallied on bad news. Or it may be the positive expiration week bias in effect. Whatever the reason or excuse, you cannot deny the price action. Once again the only caveat is the low volume but that may be a summer byproduct. I would like to get some SPY puts for next month but I suppose I'll wait and see if we make it back to the all time highs first. At this point we're overbought and staying that way. The gold shares are just the opposite, oversold both short and medium term. Asia was lower and Europe rose last night. We'll see if we get any upside follow through tomorrow.
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