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Monday, September 28, 2026

This week begins on a down note as the Dow lost 347 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. We began the day with a gap lower, tried to rally couple of times and then rolled over into the close. I'm still having trouble figuring out exactly what is going on here. Perhaps my idea of things turning higher now is wrong. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving down with plenty of room to go. I'm going to have to remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. One day it looks like things are about to go higher and the next day the market turns around and heads down. The summation index has made it through the zero line and the market did not collapse. The Dow is the one index that has had somewhat of a drop. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ continue to simply trend sideways. Gold got clobbered today as the futures fell $167. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 18 1/2, while GDX dropped about 5 points. Volume was good to the downside. GDX broke through and closed below its 200 day moving average. GDX is now short term oversold. I still like the idea for the GDX calls and might be trying them this week. Perhaps on Wednesday when we get the inflation data and maybe see another sell off. The technical set up is there but I don't know how long GDX will remain oversold. In down trends it remains oversold for a longer period of time. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and some of its short term indicators are moving higher. Still below the 200 day moving average here and not close to the 20 level. Not sure where the VIX is headed next. End of the month coming up on Wednesday. Europe and Asia were mostly lower to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight trading.

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