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Wednesday, September 30, 2026

The inflation data came in lighter than expected but the market still could not get anything going to the upside as the Dow lost 443 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving down. There was a one day downside reversal for the S&P 500 as it could not hold on to its early gains at the end of the day. The NASDAQ managed a small gain though. The short term indicators for the S&P are either heading lower or sideways at the mid-range level. Still plenty of sellers around at the end of the month. Next up is the jobs report on Friday. Some of our medium term indicators are blown out to the downside at levels that usually lead to some kind of rally or at least a decent bounce. Hasn't happened yet. Gold was up six bucks on the futures as it could not hold on to its gains either. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU fell 5 and GDX dropped 1 1/4. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold. It also had a one day downside reversal as it opened higher and closed lower. I did place an order for the GDX October calls this morning and it was filled. This trade is showing a small loss. I have a stop loss order in place as I may be too early for this idea to work. If the trade does get stopped out I will try it again at a different strike price. I do expect some sort of move higher or decent bounce for gold and the gold shares at some point before the October option expiration. The technical evidence supports that thesis in my view. Timing as always is the key. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits with a mostly overall down picture for stocks today. The short term indicators are now moving higher. Still below the 200 day moving average here. I'm in the next trade now and at the rate things are going it will get stopped out tomorrow. Regardless, we are sticking with the gold share call trade opinion for now. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings developments.

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