Friday, August 17, 2018
We got some upside follow through to yesterdays gains as the Dow added 110 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. This should the summation index back up. The rally is mostly in the Dow for now. I'm keeping an eye on RUT as it hasn't broken out above 1700 with volume yet. The S&P 500 is once again challenging new all time highs. It may get there next week if the rally continues. The VIX is back below its 50 day moving average. The market made quite a comeback during a turbulent week. It seems to be saying that we're poised to move higher. I do still have my open order out there for the SPY September puts. I think that if RUT breaks out to the upside I will have to cancel that trade. GE was unchanged on light volume. Gold was up $6 as the US dollar was lower. The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was pretty heavy. Most likely short covering in my opinion because I can't see any reason why anyone would be interested in gold after the beating it has taken. I don't know, maybe some bottom fishing but the fact remains that the seasonal strength has been nowhere to be found in gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We made it through option expiration today and we're on to the September cycle. An extra week thrown in there for September so the premiums are high. The market was resilient this week considering all the negative headline news. The S&P 500 seems poised to set a new all time high at some point next week. If it does start to break out here we'll need to see some volume to confirm the move up. But it hasn't happened yet and headlines from the weekend could turn things around back down again. There's plenty of questions without answers at the moment. It's been a busy summer and I suppose that won't change here in the last two weeks of August. I'll go over the charts as usual this weekend to try to decipher what I think is going on. I do believe that new highs in the S&P are coming up soon. After that, I just don't know. Asia was generally higher and Europe slightly lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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