Monday, August 13, 2018
Continuing lower today as the Dow fell 125 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. Rallies from here can and will be sold. It already looks like it's too late for the SPY puts. The VIX closed above its 200 day moving average and that's another sign of what I believe is to come. The overall market was not as low as the Dow but don't let that fool you. I'm not sure exactly how far we'll go down but it should be a lot lower than here. Next months puts are already pricey but I do think that they will work. GE lost 1/3 on average volume. It broke to new fresh lows. Gold got pummeled despite the trouble overseas. That is a sure sign of weakness. The futures lost $18 and closed at $1200. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU fell 2 1/4, while GDX shed 5/8. Volume was extremely heavy. Perhaps this is the final blowout to the downside. Or maybe not. The positive seasonality for gold is nowhere to be found this year. My GDX September calls are dead. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The market is still focused on the problems in Turkey. This too will pass. The short term technical indicators for the major stock indexes have rolled over. We are seeing selling worldwide and that is to be expected. I don't know if we've gotten to the margin call stage yet. But we've definitely seen the flight to safety trade with the US dollar and US treasuries. Did not see it in gold though, just the opposite there. I do not know what that means except that when things start to head lower, as is the case with gold right now, they usually go further than you think. It will create opportunity but I have already taken my shot there and will now look for other trades. I'll still try the SPY September puts if I get the chance. Europe and Asia sold off last night. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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