Friday, August 03, 2018
Moving higher as expected as the Dow gained 136 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn back up but it hasn't happened yet. The overall market wasn't as strong as the Dow today. The jobs report was a bit less than expected but it didn't matter. That too was expected as the short term technical indicators were turning around. The VIX is now below 12, which says to me there will be some more upside in the near term. We may just hit a new all time high on the S&P 500 soon. I'm really not a believer of this rally but you cannot argue with price. I'll start looking at the SPY September puts but the premiums are pretty pricey. GE didn't do much today and the volume was light. Gold was up slightly on the futures as interest rates ticked lower. The US dollar was little changed. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on OK volume. I'm still waiting for the seasonal rally here. Could be a long wait and my GDX September call trade is already a big loser. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We got through the data and announcements of this week pretty much unscathed. Earnings have come in pretty good after the recent debacle in the tech sector that sent the small stocks lower. Where do we go from here is the question that I don't have an answer for at the moment. I'll do the work over the weekend to try and find out. There's still a long way to go in the summer but only a couple of weeks remaining in the August option cycle. At this point I'm inclined to wait and see if we hit a new all time high in the S&P and then short it from there. But that's just a Friday afternoon idea in the summer. More work will have to be done to see if that is even a viable strategy. No summer doldrums yet. Asia was mixed but European stocks finished higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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