Thursday, August 09, 2018
We drifted around for much of the session and then fell towards the close. The Dow lost 74 points on light volume. The advance/declines were basically even. The overall market did not drop as much as the Dow. The summation index continues sideways. Today had the feel of the summer doldrums as has the week so far. I'm still looking for some upside into the expiration next week. We are working off the short term overbought condition of the market before we head higher is my prognosis at the moment. The small stocks are acting better than the big caps and the VIX remains low. I am keeping my open order out there for the SPY September puts. However I will probably adjust it as we move forward. The S&P 500 remains within striking distance of a new all time high. Hasn't happened yet and it's what comes after that if it does for the key to where we're heading. GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains light. Gold dropped a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar moved higher. The XAU and GDX closed slightly lower but well off of the highs for the day. The dollar looks to be breaking out above its recent consolidation and that should spell more trouble for gold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. My GDX September call trade is a big loser. Without a stop loss order in place after the trade was filled was the mistake made here. I did not anticipate that the gold shares would simply remain oversold for weeks on end. But that does not excuse the lousy trading tactics of not using the stop loss. That is my fault alone. but it's been that kind of trading year for me so far. The stock market has been weaker at the end of the day for the past couple of sessions. To me that isn't a bullish sign. However I do think that we'll at least make another attempt at a new all time high in the S&P during the upcoming expiration week. That would give me the opportunity to try the September puts if all goes according to plan. The market rarely cooperates though. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
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