Tuesday, August 07, 2018
Still moving up as the Dow tacked on 126 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index has turned back up but not with any conviction yet. The overall market was not as strong as the Dow today. The short term technical indicators are overbought for the S&P. Getting closer to a new all time high there but haven't made it yet. I did place an open order for the SPY September puts today. We'll have to see some more upside for this to be filled. I would like to establish this position between now and option expiration on the 17th. GE gained a few cents and the volume is still light. Gold was flat on the day as the US dollar traded a bit lower. The XAU fell a point, while GDX dropped 1/4. Volume was about average. These indexes had one day downside reversals as they opened up but closed down. The gold shares have been decimated and are completely oversold and staying that way. If they are any indication about what else may happen here, the US dollar should be about to move higher past the resistance at 95. The gold shares out perform on the upside for gold and the opposite on the downside. That is what we are seeing now. I don't have to tell you that my GDX September calls are dead. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No summer doldrums yet for the stock market this year. Just waiting for new highs in the S&P 500 and then we'll see what happens from there. 8 days left in the August option cycle and I do not anticipate doing a trade in the August cycle. An extra week for the September option cycle so the premiums will be a bit pricey. I do want to attempt the September SPY puts though. My ideas haven't paid off yet this year and the trading has been brutal so far. This losing GDX call trade doesn't help with the confidence factor either. But you've just got to keep moving on in the game and that's what I intend to do. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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