Tuesday, September 04, 2018
Slightly lower on the Dow today as it shed 12 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow for a change. We did get a signal on the McClellan oscillator last Friday for a big move in the next two sessions. We'll see if it shows up tomorrow. Still short term overbought on the major stock indices and it still has a feel of a market that wants to go higher. It did try to sell off early today as we were down over 100 points but buyers steeped up and we came all the way back. My SPY September puts are still showing a loss. One day of rally might them stopped out. GE lost 1/4 on light volume. Gold fell eight bucks on the futures as the US dollar rose. Interest rates went up as well. The XAU lost 2 3/4, while GDX dropped 1/2. Volume was heavy. We've reached fresh lows for the gold share indices. If ever there was seasonal pattern that didn't show up, this year for gold and the gold shares is an example. As much as I'd like to attempt the longer term calls here again, I'm going to simply stay away from trading there for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed today but then came all the way back. That says to me that there's a chance for things to get back going to the upside soon. Like I said, we had a chance to sell off today but made it all the way back. We're still at the mercy of headline risk but all selling has been met with buyers for the past few weeks. We do have some tech companies being grilled by Congress tomorrow. However I think the main event will be the employment report on Friday. So we'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how it goes in the evening trading tonight.
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