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Tuesday, September 25, 2018

A mixed bag again today as the Dow fell about 70 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The overall market was not as weak as the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the plus.  The VIX remains under its 50 day moving average but is oversold and could turn back up at any time.  Today was a waiting game as expected, with the real moves coming tomorrow after the Fed.  I do have my open order for the SPY October puts still out there but at this rate it won't get filled.  The time to try this idea may have already passed if we simply continue lower from here.  Overbought on the big caps with the short term technical indicators rolling over.  I think that we're going to head lower.  GE dropped 1/2 on extremely heavy volume.  This issue used to be a leader but it isn't anymore.  At least it hasn't been lately.  Not even a member of the Dow anymore and that doesn't help.  Not exactly sure what it means but the old industrial stocks just ain't what they used to be.  Gold and the US dollar both didn't do much today.  Same for the XAU and GDX.  Volume here was a bit lighter.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All eyes and ears will be on the Fed tomorrow.  It appears that a rate hike of 1/4 point is coming.  Everybody is aware of that.  I guess we'll move off of what chairman Powell says in his speech afterwards.  Which way is the question.  I'm going to leave my open order out there and adjust as we move forward.  Rates have risen lately but the market doesn't seem to be affected.  Once we get tomorrows news perhaps we'll see some relief buying.  Or not.  It's all just a guess from me.  The technical indicators remain overbought for the most part but we haven't been able to rise above the zero line in the McClellan oscillator.  The TRAN has gone down in the short term along with the Dow.  RUT remains above its 50 day moving average and is more oversold than overbought.  There really is no clear picture or signal as to what happens next.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed tomorrow.

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