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Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Volatility returned today as the Dow fell 106 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  The Fed came out, we got a rally and then fell apart in the final hour.  My open order for the SPY October puts did not get filled and it is too late now.  The VIX jumped and it closed above the 50 day moving average.  RUT finally closed below its 50 day moving average.  There is little doubt in my mind that we're heading lower.  The short term technical indicators for the big caps have all rolled over now.  The small stocks have bearish dojis on the daily candlestick charts.  GE was actually up 1/8 on heavy volume.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU shed 1 3/4, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was heavy.  The gold shares look like they are starting to roll over here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated.  I suppose I should have adjusted my open order when we started to rally but hindsight is never wrong.  You have to be able to make the adjustments in the moment.  I wasn't able to do that.  I don't think that I'll get another opportunity for this trade now.  We will probably just head lower from here.  The price action today was a one day reversal to the downside.  With RUT breaking support, unless we see a dramatic turnaround back to the upside tomorrow, this market is finally going to get some weakness that to me is long overdue.  This will occur despite a drop in interest rates but that drop could be due to a flight to safety.  So where do we go from here?  I guess I'll just have to wait for the next signal to show up but that could take a while.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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