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Monday, September 17, 2018

Lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 92 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving down.  We were short term overbought on one of my indicators but today will turn that around.  The other short term indicators have now rolled over as well.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  I did place an open order for the SPY October puts but we'll need to see some upside for the order to be filled.  I'm not exactly sure that this is the right idea but I'll leave the order out there for now.  The McClellan oscillator did give a signal on Friday for a decent move and perhaps today qualifies.  GE was up a couple cents on average volume.  Gold rose a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was better than average.  It appears that gold and the gold shares have found a bottom.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, not a good nights sleep.  The small stocks are back at their 50 day moving averages that have held all the recent declines.  There is also support off of the tops that were made during June through August.  So we should hold things here but if we don't, then you'll know we're in for a decent drop in equities.  It is option expiration week though and that usually means a positive bias.  But the market usually doesn't wait around when it wants to drop so the next couple of sessions should tell the story.  It may already be too late for the SPY puts.  There may still be time for the GDX calls going out into the future though.  The bounce here may just be starting.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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