Friday, September 14, 2018
A day of hanging around as the Dow added 8 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The VIX is back in oversold territory. The TRAN set a new all time high. Will the Dow follow? Not completely overbought for stocks yet but we're getting there. Options expiration week is straight ahead. I'm not exactly sure what the next trade is but if we rally early in the week I'll probably try the SPY October puts. But I'll look things over again on the weekend to be sure. GE was up a few cents and volume picked up as well. Gold fell ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar rallied. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. That's a plus or maybe these stocks are just sold out. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. Buyers and sellers were about even today as retail sales were a bit weaker than expected. We'll get some housing data next week but not much else. If the McClellan oscillator can get back above the zero line next week perhaps this rally has legs. If not maybe the sellers will try and take charge again. Let me repeat that the breadth hasn't been all that good lately and the volume remains weak. There's only five days left in the September option cycle, so any trading idea there has added risk. I am looking at the longer term gold share calls as well but the fundamentals there only point to shorter time frame trades on the long side. Higher rates are not conducive to rallies in gold. I'm keeping an eye on RUT because it hasn't been acting good lately. Breaking to a new all time high there would change that. Otherwise I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. Asia was higher again and Europe finished on the plus side as well. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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