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Monday, September 10, 2018

The Dow closed lower today s it fell 59 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The overall market was higher from the get go, with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher.  The TRAN had a very strong day and hit a new high.  The small stocks were up but it wasn't a move that inspires confidence.  I think we'll move higher tomorrow but after that I'm not so sure.  We are still more oversold than overbought on the short term technical indicators.  My SPY September puts are now showing a loss and will probably be stopped out tomorrow at this rate.  I'm considering going out to the SPY October puts as the next trade.  There wan no chance today to exit the current trade at a profit since we had a gap higher open.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold finished barely changed and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/4 on average volume.  The gold shares have been decimated.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed back below its 200 day moving average and the technical indicators rolled back down.  This implies some more upside to come.  Today the McClellan oscillator bounced off of a pretty negative reading as it should have.  But I am noticing the volume lately has been very weak, a sign that players are not in a hurry to establish positions.  But the minor decline that we've seen here says that full scale selling hasn't occurred yet either.  Nine days left in the September option cycle.  We'll get inflation data, retail sales and the beige book out this week.  So there will be things to trade off of.  Right now I'm a believer that whatever bounce we see early this week won't hold up.  It is just a matter of if I get stopped out of the current trade or not.  We'll see how it goes.  Asia continues lower but Europe rose in last nights trading.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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