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Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Getting an expected bounce as the Dow gained 113 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading down.  I certainly don't think that this is the start of some kind of extended rally.  Volume is light and the breadth is weak.  I was stopped out of my SPY September put trade for about a 40% loss.  I'm now debating on where to get back in.  I may give things another day or so but I do think that we are going to head lower.  I might go out to the SPY October puts but they are rather pricey.  The short term technical indicators on the major averages are trying to turn back up.  I'm not exactly sure if attempting the September puts again is the right choice.  GE lost 18 cents on light volume.  Gold was little changed as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX finished the day little changed as well.  I am looking at the GDX January calls.  The gold shares are blown out to the downside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite another trading loss.  I simply stayed in that trade too long.  The market indicators are in the area that has held things up for the past few months.  Perhaps things will be steady through expiration before another downside move takes place.  That is simply a guess.  It's also possible that we just head back down from here because the volume says there is really no interest in stocks right now.  So perhaps the best course of action is inaction.  We'll see how the market reacts to the upcoming economic data and go from there.  We've got the beige book tomorrow as well.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.    

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