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Friday, September 21, 2018

A mixed bag on expiration Friday but eh Dow did gain 86 points on triple witching very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index has started to move sideways.  I adjusted my open order for the SPY October puts again.  The big caps are overbought on the short term technical indicators.  The small stocks are not.  They have been lagging lately and that is one of my concerns.  The McClellan oscillator has made it to the zero line.  What happens here is important.  If we break through to the upside, we could see some decent move higher for stocks.  If we're turned back here, perhaps the market isn't so ready to move forward.  The VIX remains under 12 but it is oversold.  I'm sticking with my plan for the SPY puts for now.  GE was off almost 1/3 on heavy volume.  It looks like it wants to challenge the recent lows.  Gold dropped $7 on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  The gold shares are holding up rather well lately and that is a plus.  It appears that the opportunity to try the longer term calls here has passed.  Short term overbought here for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get some economic data in the coming week but the focus will be on the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  Rates are expected to go up but all will be listening for other clues in the chairmans statement.  We'll just keep to the technical indicators and go from there.  A positive session on Monday will have another of my indicators at the overbought level.  Now the market can stay overbought for quite a while when it is in rally mode.  Hitting new all time highs is bullish as well.  I'm still concerned about the breadth because it has been awful lately.  I'm going to watch what happens with the McClellan oscillator and take my cues from there as well.  A burst higher there will cause me to cancel my open order for the SPY puts.  So it's watch and wait time once again.  Europe and Asia were higher on Friday and both finished with their best week in months.  Is money pouring back into stocks there or was it a dead cat bounce.  Time will tell on that.  I'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

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