Thursday, September 06, 2018
A repeat of yesterday as the Dow was higher and the overall market lower. The Dow was up 20 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving lower. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were both much lower than the Dow. Once again we tried to sell off hard but the market hung in there all day. Whatever bounce that I have been anticipating isn't showing up. Perhaps we're seeing a change in the tone of the market. But buyers are coming in when we drop and we finish off of the lows for the session each time. We'll see what we get with the employment report tomorrow. The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major averages but not the Dow. My SPY September puts are now showing a small profit. GE was off a nickel on light volume. Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves lower on better than average volume. The gold shares are blown out to the downside. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The small stocks are heading lower here and that is not a positive. We are at near term support for the small issues along with getting close to the 50 day moving average. So perhaps things can hold up here for stocks. The 200 day moving average is proving to be resistance for the VIX and it closed right there. So perhaps tomorrow will be a pivotal day for stocks. One of my indicators is pretty oversold, so a bounce would not be out of the question. But the underlying tone of selling from the broader market could mean that maybe we will finally be getting a substantial decline. Hasn't happened yet but the possibility is there. RUT looks like it is rolling over as well and it usually is a leader for the market. Of course things could all change tomorrow or with the next headline as well. We'll see how the market reacts to the jobs numbers and go from there. Europe and Asia were down again as the emerging market sell off shows no signs of letting up yet. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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