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Wednesday, September 05, 2018

A mixed bag today as the Dow was up with the broader market down.  The most watched index gained 22 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is now moving lower but not with any conviction yet.  Once again the signal from the McClellan oscillator did not materialize.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 showed relative weakness.  This is a change from what we saw in August when it was just the opposite.  I still think we're going to see some rally soon but I could be wrong.  I'm also still holding on to my SPY September puts and they are still showing a slight loss despite the recent downside that we've seen.  GE was off 1/8 and volume picked up a bit.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  There is a potential positive divergence on he daily RSI for the gold shares here.  Potential being the key word there.  We are overblown to the downside here but we also stayed oversold here for weeks.  I'm not inclined to attempt a trade here at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock market has tried to sell off for about three days in a row here to no avail.  I'm not sure exactly what to expect tomorrow but I would think we would tread lightly ahead of Fridays jobs report.  There have been rumblings from the emerging markets overseas having some kind of trouble again.  But the early selling in the US has always been met with buyers during the session so far.  As long as that continues we really won't see any significant downside for US equities.  The VIX has had opportunities to expand but has kept below its 200 day moving average.  The potential for a drop still probably exists but until it actually happens it may just be wishful thinking on my part because I own the index puts.  However the overall market weakness vs. the Dow gives that trade a chance for now.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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