Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Another mixed bag today as the Dow added 27 points on almost average volume. the advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues lower. Both the NASDAQ and RUT were negative today as the small stocks underperformed. The market action has been sloppy lately. However I do think that we will still see some short term upside here at the least. There are some technical indicator levels that we've reached that have contained previous weakness in stocks. It appears that they will hold once again but there are no guarantees of course in the game. The beige book was a non event today. GE was up over 1/4 but the volume was light. Gold found buyers as the futures gained $8. The US dollar was slightly lower. The gold shares finally had some rally. The XAU gained 2 1/4, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was good. Perhaps this is the bottom for the gold shares. I'm still looking at the GDX January calls but it may already be too late. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Overseas markets have been dropping for a while and the US never did fall that much. I think if we see any attempt at a rally in the Asian or emerging markets, it could help the bullish cause here. That's a guess as usual. The summation index is still moving lower and that must be respected. The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages have turned around. So perhaps another run at new all time highs is in the cards. But it certainly doesn't feel like a sustained rally is at hand. We will have option expiration week upon us soon and the usual positive bias may lift us higher. But the breadth lately hasn't been all that good and I'm thinking another run at the highs may set up another SPY put trade. We'll see. Asia was lower and Europe higher overseas last night. I'm expecting an upside day tomorrow.
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