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Monday, September 24, 2018

We begin the last week of September on a downer as the Dow fell 181 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This moves the summation index back down.  We also didn't make it through the zero line on the McClellan oscillator.  The McClellan oscillator did give off a signal for a big move within the next two days on Friday.  Today fulfills that signal.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow though with the NASDAQ posting a small gain.  I still have my open order for the SPY October puts out there.  I may have to adjust it again though.  We should be on a waiting game until the Fed announcement on Wednesday from here.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was extremely heavy.  We've broken down below the recent lows here.  Gold was slightly higher and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight moves on average volume.  A positive report on gold and the gold shares this weekend in Barrons provided a pop early but it faded as the day went on.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX made it to its 50 day moving average but was turned away.  Still short term oversold here.  The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over but I'm hoping for one more run at new all time highs to establish the SPY put position.  That could just be wishful thinking on my part.  We could easily just keep heading lower here.  RUT remains above its 50 day moving average and the short term technicals here are oversold.  With RUT usually being a leader, I'm keeping a close eye on what happens here.  1700 is the level to watch in my view.  Is it possible the market starts to rally from here?  Anything is possible in this game.  It might be a good idea to wait for the Fed before establishing any new positions.  So we'll see.  The Asian markets that were open finished lower.  Europe lost some ground as well.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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