A positive close to 2018 as the Dow gained 265 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back around to the upside.  The internal components are still weak though for this indicator.  Any advance here will most likely be short lived.  My SPY January calls are still well in the red.  The plan is to sell them on a pop up to start the new year if it occurs.  This will be a losing trade but not losing as much as it once was.  Poor timing on the entry and a trade that really should have never happened.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains heavy here.  Gold was up a touch as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU added a point, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was above average.  There remains interest in the gold shares however GDX is at some major resistance and I don't think that it will break right through.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Glad to see the 2018 trading year end as I incurred plenty of losses.  It was my worst year ever for losing money.  Nothing I did turned out to be right.  I hung on to losers.  I let winners turn into losers.  My stop losses were hit on a regular basis.  I was not up to the challenge that is trading.  The trade that I'm going to carry over to the new year will be another loser.  But as long as it doesn't turn into a big loss I'll be satisfied that I at least did the right thing.  We'll see.  The VIX continues to fall and that's a plus for the bulls.  But I don't expect any kind of extended rally here.  There is plenty of overhead resistance on all the major stock index charts.  The S&P has a down trend line to contend with and major resistance between 2600-2650.  And we're only at 2500.  I'd expect the market to trend sideways here for a while.  Once we get a short term top here in the next few days we'll have the channel parameters.  The bottom is 2350.  Tomorrow is a holiday and we'll see how it goes on Wednesday.  Asia and Europe were generally higher in the markets that were open.  Happy New Year everybody.

A day of hanging around for a change as the Dow lost 76 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive though.  The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to make a stand here and turn around.  The overall market was a bit stronger than the Dow.  My SPY January calls are back to losers.  The VIX was lower today despite the drop and that takes some volatility premium out of the options.  In hindsight I probably should have just dumped this trade today to simply break even.  However I still am of the belief that we'll see a pop on the open January 2nd and that will be the time to exit this ill timed trade.  I could be wrong.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold was up a bit and the US dollar was down a bit.  The XAU dropped 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a volatile holiday trading week but the Dow did come back from the brink.  That low will probably have to be tested at some point.  My hope here is that this short term rally continues at the beginning of next year, which will be Wednesday.  Another short trading week is coming up.  We did just see some extremely oversold readings for the major averages which don't happen very often.  Backing and filling can be expected for a while.  I'm just hoping the filling keeps coming here in the short term.  One thing that is probably for sure though.  We won't just be going straight back up.  We're just getting started on the bear market that has been overdue.  We'll just have to see how long it's going to last.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are a little below mid-range.  They could roll back over in the near term of they could continue higher.  I'm hoping on the latter.  Traders will come in to finish out the year on Monday, take a day off and then we'll see how the new year starts.  Could go either way.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and somehow closed higher.  The most watched index gained 260 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The Dow was off over 600 points at its lowest today and somehow made it all the way back and then some.  Encouraging price action for the bulls no doubt but it is still a down trend and bear market in my opinion.  The market is taking on a life of its own here, with no news to account for the wild price swings.  My SPY January calls have made it back to break even.  A holiday miracle to be sure.  If we can somehow get the summation index turned around, this trade could actually work.  But that hasn't happened yet and we could be down 100 points tomorrow in this kind of environment.  GE lost 1/8 and the volume remains heavy.  Only two days of tax loss selling left here.  Gold was up around five bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a turnaround week for stocks so far but we do have to get through Friday.  I don't think that we're about to start a sustained new uptrend here after the pummeling that the market has taken in the past few weeks.  I'm hoping the S&P can stay afloat into the beginning of the year so I can dump my ill timed calls.  But perhaps I should just get rid of them and start the new year fresh.  Always plenty of decisions to make in this game.  I think I'll wait to see how it goes tomorrow and take it from there.  If we can get the summation index turned around my opinion will be that the decline has ended for now.  But it hasn't happened yet.  Asia was higher with the exception of Hong Kong and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll close out the holiday week tomorrow.

The long overdue bounce finally arrived today as the Dow soared 1086 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 7 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  It was a massive rally with really no explanation except that we were extremely oversold.  Rallies that spring out of nowhere are classic bear market price action.  I believe that's what we've seen today.  My SPY January calls are still losers but not as much as they were.  Is there still hope for this trade?  Maybe but it will take another 1000 points on the upside in a hurry for it to turn a profit.  After todays price action I would not be surprised if we just hang around or drift lower before January gets going.  GE was up 1/2 and the volume was heavy.  Gold was only off a couple bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX each lost about 1/2 on good volume.  It may be time for gold to take a rest if the market continues to recover.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's a holiday week usually for the market here but these certainly aren't the usual times.  The Dow rose the most points ever today.  The extreme oversold nature of stocks is what led to todays extreme rally.  The volatility works both ways.  I don't expect another sharp rally like today happening again until perhaps the first trading day of January.  But that's just a guess as usual.  The summation index is getting about as low as it goes.  If that index does turn around here, we'll need to see some more upside.  I do think that it will turn back up here.  However that doesn't mean we won't see backing and filling along the way.  So for me to actually turn a profit on the recent trade will take some doing.  At this point I'm willing to hang on until next year.  But that could be the wrong strategy as well.  However if what I'm thinking about the summation index is true, waiting a few days here would be the right strategy.  The McClellan oscillator was blown out below -300.  It is now on its way back and trying to hit positive territory.  Whether or not it does will say a lot about where the market is going in the near term  Stay tuned for that.  Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see if they follow the US lead tonight.

It was a holiday shortened session but the selling is relentless.  The Dow fell 653 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  There are no buyers.  Readings on some of the technical indicators are in the extreme spot they can be in.  There will be an incredible snap back from the low but we don't know where the low will be.  The VIX is incredibly overbought.  These are interesting times.  I don't know what will turn things around but something will.  A short covering rally at the least.  But for now it's just drop, drop, drop.  My SPY January calls are dead.  It's a matter of booking the loss this year or next.  GE fell about 1/4 on light volume.  Gold rallied in a flight to safety.  It gained $15 on the futures.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 7/8, while GDX added 3/4.  Volume was good.  Another missed trade with the GDX calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling better, finally getting over the cold/flu.  Not much else to say here on Christmas eve.  The market is really in an extraordinary funk.  The summation index is in free fall beneath the zero line and you don't see that happen too often.  Rest assured that we'll see a healthy bounce but we just don't know from what level.  I'm also not exactly sure if this will be an extended decline time wise or something like we saw in 1998 or 1987.  For now all we can do is watch and wait.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  Merry Christmas everybody.

Down, down, down she goes as the Dow lost 414 points on the heaviest volume in years.  Expiration heavy, selling heavy, who knows?  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower with a vengeance and it's already below the zero line.  I keep thinking that this can't just go on but it does.  Not even a day of rally for stocks as the bloodbath continues.  I really don't know what to say because oversold and staying that way seems beyond what we've got going here.  No bounce, no nothing.  My SPY January calls have lost half their value.  I doubt that we'll see another miracle comeback.  This was a trade that I should never have even put in.  I don't know what it will take for buyers to return.  We haven't even seen the usual short covering rally.  Interesting times.  GE lost about thirty cents and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold fell a bout eight bucks as the US dollar was stronger.  The XAU lost 1 1/8, while GDX dropped about 1/4.  Volume was a bit above average.  I'm still considering the GDX January calls but may look to February too.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, still not 100%.  Quite a week as we are in market free fall.  The sidelines are really the place to be unless you're short.  There's not telling how low this will go.  I thought 2500 might hold things and my next level was 2400.  We're almost there.  The 200 week moving average comes in at 2350.  Let's face it, it's all a guess because the market forces are beyond the numbers at this point.  The VIX closed above 30.  The McClellan oscillator will be in the negative 300's.  It could go to the negative 400's because I've seen that before.  But once we get to the bottom there, a bounce will occur.  Maybe next week, maybe not.  It will be a holiday trading week.  Normally I'd say it will be thinly traded but not in this kind of market.  Whatever upside we see probably won't be enough to save my SPY January calls though.  This has been the most bearish December that I can remember.  When the bulls don't show up for Christmas, it means nothing be trouble going forward.  And we've already seen plenty of trouble already.  So like I said, it will be interesting.  Asia was lower with the exception of Hong Kong.  Europe was up overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The decline just keeps on going as the Dow fell 464 points on extremely heavy volume again.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  I don't know how low it can go.  Buyers have disappeared in the stock market.  We are seeing a collapse and that was a slight possibility that became reality.  Just how far down we go isn't clear because we should have seen some kind of bounce and it just doesn't happen.  Blown out on all the technical indicators to the downside.  It will end eventually but in this kind of market environment it is better to just step aside.  My SPY January calls are losers but they could possibly make it back to break even when the bounce gets going.  Or not.  Oversold, staying that way and there is no bottom for now.  GE lost 1/4 and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold found buyers on the stock market decline.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 3 1/8, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was heavy as we saw a reversal of yesterdays price drop.  I'm still going to have to wait for the short term indicators to get oversold here before attempting the GDX calls.  Gold will find buyers as long as the volatility lasts and the market keeps dropping.  Mentally I'm feeling better.  Extremely heavy volume this week so far as the players are getting things done before the holiday week to finish out 2018.  Selling is the name of the game for now.  I still think we'll see quite a bounce once it gets going.  The trouble is that it looks like there's no bottom in sight despite all the indicators that say we should have saw one already.  But the market goes where it wants.  Rallies will be sold anyway until further notice.  The VIX made it up to 30 today and I don't know how much higher it will go.  All the major indices have tops below tops and 50 day moving averages below 200 day moving averages.  So there is no guessing when it comes to what kind of trend we are in.  I'm trying the SPY calls just for a bounce but my entry timing obviously was off.  We'll see how it goes form here.  The next idea for now is going back to the SPY puts when the VIX hits 16.  That is a long way from here.  Both Europe and Asia were lower last night.  I don't see any change in that either on the horizon.  We'll see how expiration goes tomorrow as we close out the trading week.

The Fed spoke and the market didn't like what it heard.  The Dow fell 351 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Very oversold, staying that way and the long awaited bounce is way past due.  Perhaps the market will crash but I'm not betting on it.  I did place an order for the SPY January calls at a price that I did not expect to get filled.  But it did.  If 2500 is the level where the decline stops in the S&P for a while, this trade will work out.  If not, it's another loser.  We are so technically blown out here that I decided to give this idea a chance.  If we see a huge rally out of nowhere in the next couple of days, I should be out.  The price is where I bought it.  GE saw a nice gain of over 1/3 on very heavy volume.  Money is starting to come back into GE.  Gold dropped a bit, while the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU got creamed and lost 4 points.  GDX dropped 1 1/8 on very heavy volume.  Perhaps there will be a chance for the GDX January calls after all.  But I'll have to wait for the short term indicators to get oversold and they're not there yet.  Mentally I'm still a little slow.  So here I am in another trade that I certainly didn't expect.  The trend is down for stocks and I'm trying to take the other side of that.  Any kind of gain for this idea has got to be taken because we are in a very strange market environment.  Seasonality has been thrown out the window and the negative tone for equities persists.  There's plenty of time for this trade to work out but it would take a complete turnaround of the current market psychology for that to happen.  I just don't see it at this point.  Like I said, if 2500 is the stopping point for now, the trade could work.  But you can easily make a case for 2400 too.  I'm not sure what I was thinking when I put the order in but I did not expect that it would be filled.  We'll just have to see where things go from here.  With the oversold condition at the moment, being as extreme at it is, there is a chance for success.  We'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in overnight trade.  We'll keep an eye on how these markets react to the Fed tonight.  

Some bouncing around today as the market decides what to do with itself here.  The Dow rose 82 points on pretty heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We're still very oversold any way you look at it.  I think we'll see a decent bounce tomorrow regardless what the Fed does.  The market rarely stays this oversold for this long unless we're going to crash.  I do not see that coming up.  I am looking out to the SPY January calls here and may purchase some tomorrow morning.  The VIX remains elevated and is at the top of its recent channel.  If it does break out to the upside things could get real ugly.  But I don't think that will happen.  GE was up 1/8, pretty heavy volume but came off of the highs.  Gold was up just a bit and the US dollar a bit lower.  The XAU added about 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  GDX is breaking out above its 200 day moving average.  The rally in the gold shares seems to be for real.  However there is plenty of resistance between the 21 and 22 levels.  We just crossed 21 today.  Mentally I'm still under the weather and not at full speed.  You really need to be in decent health to play this game at your best.  The Fed will come and go tomorrow.  The market will react and then we'll move on.  The selling has been very relentless during a normally bullish period.  That is not a positive sign.  We are way overdue for some upside but whatever it is it probably won't last.  I may try to play the bounce but a better idea is waiting for the VIX to move down to 16 and then trying some SPY puts.  We'll see if I have the patience for that.  The gold shares look like another possible trade on a pullback.  It is a seasonally strong time now for them and that is coming true this year.  Tomorrow should be interesting but I would not be surprised by a huge rally due to the oversold technical condition of the market.  After that, who knows?  Asia and Europe were both lower in last nights trade as they wait for the Fed decision as well.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The market got pounded lower again today as the Dow fell 507 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  We are very oversold and staying that way.  A bounce is overdue but it probably won't hold.  I did even consider getting some SPY December calls for the week.  But I stayed out.  We've broken all the S&P support and there isn't much else to say about that.  I can make a case for the S&P to stop at around the 2500 level.  But in this kind of market that defies the indicators, anything can happen.  RUT continues to lead the way down.  We'll get the Fed announcement in a couple days and anything can happen after that too.  Buyers have disappeared for now.  It's another 10% correction you'll hear but make no mistake.  The bull market is over and we'll have to wait for the bear to finish before we can really be positive about the trend again.  GE was actually up a nickel on the usual heavy volume that we've seen here for quite a while.  I just went ahead and bought GE today, as this will be a long term hold and I do believe that it will be well worth it in the years to come.  Gold was up today as the US dollar traded lower.  The XAU was up by over 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  It does not look like there will be a pullback here for the gold shares in order to try the GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm still not up to snuff as this cold/flu will not go away.  The market doesn't care though.  Oversold any way you look at it but there hasn't been a hint of any kind of sustained rally.  We did have a little bounce at the end of the day of over 100 points but that was probably short covering ahead of the Fed.  Any way you look at things here it doesn't bode well for the stock market.  In what is usually one of the most bullish time periods all we are getting is selling.  We also now have lower lows with lower highs on the charts.  I thin that the next idea will be to try the SPY puts when the VIX gets back to the 16 level.  That seems to be the level where the selling starts.  Another idea would be for the SPY puts if it makes it back up to the declining tops line on the daily chart.  Right here though I'm looking for some kind of bounce because the oversold readings on some of the indicators are at extremes.  Unless we get some kind of crash out of nowhere but that possibility at this stage is remote.  Asia was higher overnight and Europe lower but not to the extent of the US decline.  We'll see what happens overseas tonight.

We finished the week on a downer as the Dow dropped 496 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The market tried to rally this week, had a weak bounce and rolled over again.  It must know something that we don't.  Short term oversold and staying that way.  The fact that the summation index made it back to the zero line and was turned away is a huge negative as well on a technical basis.  Option expiration week is coming up along with the Fed announcement.  I'd expect to see some kind of upside at some point but it probably won't last.  RUT has broken down as well.  We have yet to see the wash out bottom that we need to get rid of all the sellers.  Not sure if that will happen any time soon either.  I guess we can hope for the Santa Claus rally.  But it appears that the long bull market has finally come to an end.  GE lost a dime and volume remains heavy.  I'm guessing that we've seen the low here at 6.75 and I'm going to try and buy some of this issue on Monday for a long term play.  Gold fell over $5 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU dropped 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was average.  If the gold shares get oversold I may again try to get some GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm still not feeling right, tired and need to get rid of this cold/flu.  We closed lower for the week on the S&P and things will get even uglier if we don't turn around here soon.  This is the last area of support right here and now.  Oversold and staying there is not a good sign.  No seasonal strength is not a good sign.  A return to the falling summation index and RUT leading the way down all point to even more trouble going forward.  The elevated VIX isn't helping things either.  I'm pretty much on the sidelines until next year at this point.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend but the risk of trying to get long here is too high for me.  I'm pretty sure that we will see a decent bounce next week but trying to time it will be difficult.  This is the last week before the holidays so you can figure all that needs to be done before the end of year will be taking place.  It should be interesting to say the least.  Europe and Asia were both lower to finish out the week there.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

A mixed bag today but the Dow managed a gain of 70 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still tracking lower.  The NASDAQ was lower today along with RUT.  That isn't a good sign for the bulls.  I'm not exactly sure what's driving prices here.  We've broken down from the near term support in RUT.  The other indices are trying to hang in there for now.  We need to see some upside soon or there's a chance the overall market will break support and roll over here as well.  RUT is generally the leader and has already found fresh lows.  GE got a bump on an analyst recommendation.  It rose 1/2 on extremely heavy volume.  Gold was slightly lower with the US dollar just the opposite.  The XAU and GDX had minute gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm still slow, not 100% and feeling tired.  I am again going to cut the blog short today.  Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

A rally to start the day but it tailed off again.  The Dow did gain 157 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around again.  I think that the market is being held hostage by the Brexit drama out of England at the moment.  We did expect a bounce and got it today.  Whether or not it has any staying power remains to be seen.  Volatility still rules the day and with that backdrop no rally is safe.  The usual seasonal bullishness is absent and that is a problem for the bulls.  GE was off a nickel and the volume remains heavy.  Gold was up a bit today as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX rose 3/8.  Volume was good.  The gold shares are overbought and staying that way.  If GDX can get through 20.5 there should be more room to run.  Mentally I'm still a bit off, not feeling well again.  I'm tired with some kind of cold or flu and the concentration just isn't there.  I'll be cutting the blog short again but the basic bearish theme remains.  Europe and Asia rallied overnight.  We'll see what comes out of England tomorrow.

It as an up and down session to be sure and the Dow ended with a loss of 53 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The market opened up around 300 points higher but could not hold on.  Not sure exactly what is going on here but it isn't positive for the bulls.  This is normally a very good time for the market but this year is different.  The VIX remains elevated and volatility is now the rule.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind here at the moment.  We are short term oversold though.  Even if we get a pop to the upside here the overall tone is bearish.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume remains very heavy.  Perhaps some tax loss selling going on here.  I'm still looking to purchase GE down here for a longer term investment.  There has been so much bad news here and the dividend has been cut as far as it can go.  I do not think that this company will simply fold but I could be wrong.  Gold was a bit lower and the US dollar a bit higher today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses again on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, still not feeling well.  In a way we're still waiting for the market to figure out what it wants to do here.  But I must say that all the technical evidence points to bearish conclusions.  It appears that the market has found its top and is in the process of rolling over.  Even though we are short term oversold any rally will probably be sold into.  The game has obviously changed.  If we can ever get below the 15-16 level on the VIX, then I'd say we're back to the bull case.  However that does not appear to be in the cards anytime soon.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow, which was down 500 points, made it all the way back to finish with a gain of 34.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative though.  Volume remains heavy.  The summation index is moving lower.  Perhaps today it was short term bottom that was put in but there's no telling in this volatile market.  The VIX almost made it to 26.  RUT was negative but could be at a short term bottom along with the TRAN.  We'll have to see how it plays out from here.  GE was off a few cents and closed below 7.  I do have an order in to buy the stock at lower levels but it isn't a trade, it will be long term.  Gold was off a couple bucks and the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on OK volume.  Mentally I'm feeling tired and I have a chest cold so I'm not up to snuff.  You cannot make the proper decisions when your health isn't where it's supposed to be.  I'm also going to cut the blog short to get some more rest.  We saw a comeback in stocks two days ago and then we simply headed right back down.  The market is more oversold this time around, so perhaps we can get a few days of rally.  Support has broken down though and numerous indices have had their 50 day moving average drop below their 200 day.  The back drop for stocks here is negative.  Europe and Asia both traded lower last night.

Another downer on Wall Street as the Dow fell 558 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index has turned lower.  The jobs report was a bit light.  After a brief rally the market nosedived, which negated whatever positive price action we saw with yesterdays comeback.  The RUT broke below its recent support and that is a harbinger of lower prices for the rest of the indices in my opinion.  There will be no miracle comeback for the bulls in the near future.  I dumped my SPY December calls for a 90 % loss.  They had a 50% gain on Monday.  But that is the nature of the game and goes along with what is my worst year of trading that I can remember.  Like I've said, I don't really know what's going on here but the market is never wrong.  There's still two weeks left in the December option cycle, so it's possible that I'll try another trade but I doubt it.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold was up on the futures and we've broken resistance at $1240.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2 on heavier volume.  The gold shares are looking like the place to be but I think that it's too late for that trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P is back to its near term support on the daily chart.  The indicators are just about oversold.  The weekly chart looks terrible with a very large bearish engulfing pattern on the candlestick version.  Also on the daily chart the 50 day moving average just crossed over the 200 day moving average to the downside.  The technical picture for the S&P is negative.  The VIX is getting overbought but isn't completely there yet.  I really don't see any good news coming from anywhere to turn this thing around in the near term.  All the good news came out early in the past week.  I guess there isn't much more for me to do here except lick my wounds and move on.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Volatility rules.  We were off almost 800 points today but the Dow came back and finished with a loss of 79 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading sideways but trying to turn down.  New lows expanded to there biggest total recently.  The VIX spiked to almost 26 then backed off.  The market did hold where the double bottom lows were but it doesn't feel as though things will hold up here.  The NASDAQ did manage a gain which is quite something on a day like this.  I don't know the reason for all the selling but you cannot ignore the price action.  Something is going on.  My SPY December calls are still dead.  GE was actually up a few cents on heavy volume.  Perhaps GE is sold out here.  I mean what's left to go wrong with that stock?  Gold finished flat on the day and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on OK volume.  I canceled my open order for the GDX January calls.  If GDX gets to the bottom of the recent trading range, I might try this idea again.  But I decided that with all the recent craziness I'd simply step aside.  Mentally I'm a little side tracked, with outside the market everyday issues taking up some of my mental time.  Nothing serious like the hospital incident of a couple years ago.  We'll get the jobs report tomorrow and that should set the tone for the day.  Today price action did have the make up of a bottom.  But we won't know for sure until we see what happens from here.  If we rally tomorrow you could make a case for a short term bottom at least.  However if we drop back down and break the recent lows you can be sure that more trouble is on the way.  I think that it is safe to say that at the moment the market is out of control.  That is not a bullish scenario.  Still two weeks left in the December option cycle.  The trade I'm in already had one miracle comeback, could another be in store?  Highly unlikely but the market does go where it wants to.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow and take it from there.  Europe and Asia got clocked last night after Tuesdays US debacle.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and close put the trading week tomorrow. 

The Dow got clobbered today as it dropped 799 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up but at this rate it will turn back down soon.  The VIX has spiked back up above 20.  All the positive market action of the past week has been erased.  Volatility rules and it's both ways.  The S&P had good volume on the break above the declining tops line and we have plowed right back under that line.  The double bottom that was in place has been negated.  I don't know what the real story is for todays price action because there was no news to cause it.  The market knows things that we don't so be prepared for something out of the blue.  My SPY December calls that were showing a profit yesterday are now back to dead.  That's how quick things can turn in the game.  I guess we know now to take our cues from the VIX.  If it gets back to 16 again, get short.  We were short term overbought but certainly could not have predicted this kind of day off of that.  RUT is usually the leader and it got crushed.  Another day like today will take it to fresh lows.  Keep an eye on it.  GE lost 1/2 on very heavy volume.  I'm looking for a long term trade here by actually buying the stock at some point this month.  Gold was off a couple backs as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on OK volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure what is going on here and when that's the case it is best to just step aside.  The markets will be closed tomorrow due to the death of former president George H.W. Bush.  That will give the rest of the world time to digest what we saw happen in the US today.  I would expect selling around the globe.  As for the S&P, there is plenty of room to move down on the technical indicators and I would not be surprised to see this sell off continue.  Once again, I don't know the reasons and the market does.  When things are looking to go one way and they turn around and do the opposite you must take notice.  The market is telling us something here that it knows and will probably be revealed in due time.  One day doesn't make a trend and yes after the US/China agreement perhaps all the good news was out there.  But buyers never stepped in today and there's got to be a reason for that.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the exception of Hong Kong.  We'll take a day off tomorrow and brace for Thursday morning.

We got a rally out of the US/China developments as the Dow rose 287 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  This is good news for the bulls because the S&P 500 has broken through the declining tops line that began in October.  The volume was good so the break is for real.  We are at near term resistance of 2800, so a pause here would not be out of the question.  The short term technical indicators are also overbought.  So stalling for a while or a drop lower from here would be acceptable.  My SPY December calls are now showing a profit.  Of course waiting for the double bottom would have been the much better play.  But I'll take what I can get if this trade does pan out.  The measurement of the double bottom would take us to new all time highs but I don't know if that will occur before expiration on the 21st.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold was higher today along with the US dollar.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was a bit above average.  I still have my open order in for the GDX January calls.  Once again , it would take some decline to get this filled.  The gold shares don't seem to be moving much either way right now and I may consider canceling this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling a little tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX has now reached its 200 day moving average and the 16 level.  What happens here must be watched.  If we break and close below the 200 day moving average that would be a good sign for the bulls.  But we are short term oversold on this indicator.  A move up in volatility and a move lower for stocks in the near term is very possible.  But if we continue higher and the VIX continues to drop, the rally will have legs.  The positive action in the summation index is another plus along with the seasonal bullishness.  My guess is that the decline is over but I'd like to see some better action in RUT to be completely sure.  Europe and Asia rallied as well.  Money is coming back into stocks around the world.  We'll see how long that lasts.      

We finished the month on a positive note as the Dow gained 199 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving up.  My SPY December calls somehow made it back into the black.  Not sure exactly what we saw in the market today unless it already knows there will be good news coming out over the weekend.  Monday still hinges on the China/US meeting tonight.  It's simply a guess as to what transpires there.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are getting overbought.  The weekly chart for the S&P looks like it could be a double bottom.  The indicators there are trying to turn around and if they do the double bottom will be confirmed but it hasn't happened yet.  A lot depends on outcome of the G-20 meeting.  GE was off almost 1/2 today on heavy volume.  No bottom here yet I guess.  Gold lost a couple bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses again and finished up from the lows of the session.  Volume was light.  I'm leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another volatile month for stocks but it appears that a bottom may be in place.  Temporarily at least.  We'll still need to see the VIX crack the 15 to 16 level to the downside for the all clear on a rally.  Getting short term oversold there though and any negative headline could easily see us heading back towards 20.  Three weeks to go in the December option cycle.  The fact that my SPY options were dead and have came back to life cannot be ignored.  The question now is do I just get out and save the money for another trade or do I hold on and see if the market really has formed a double bottom?  I'm leaning towards the latter.  I will have to check all the charts over the weekend though.  Plenty of economic data due out next week once we digest the results of the China/US get together.  So there will be plenty to consider moving forward from here.  I'll try to remain objective as we start the month of December.  We'll see if the seasonal strength decides to kick in or not.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

A bit of downside today and that is to be expected after yesterdays huge run up.  The Dow fell 27 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation has turned around again and is trying to head higher.  My SPY December calls are back to break even.  It looks like that this will be a trade that is held onto for a while.  End of the month tomorrow and I would not be surprised to see some more selling.  The market will be waiting to see what happens with the US/China meeting over the weekend.  That will probably be the market mover for Monday.  GE was up almost 1/4 on heavy volume.  Has a bottom been put in here?  I would expect some more selling in December but we'll see what happens.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had small fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains elevated so I would expect volatility to continue.  If we can somehow get below the 200 day moving average here at around16, then I think we have the chance for a sustainable rally.  For now the S&P 500 is really just bouncing around roughly between the 2800 and 2650 levels.  Any break in either direction will tell where we're going.  On the plus side if we break the declining tops line on the S&P, that will also take us above the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  That would be a strong positive and no doubt would lead to higher prices.  But we certainly haven't seen that happen yet.  A drop and close below 2650 would put the bears back in charge.  So we'll have to see how it plays out.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight, following the US lead.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

The Fed spoke and the market liked what it heard as the Dow staged a powerful rally and was up 617 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  This will turn the summation index back up.  We'll need to see more good breadth to keep this indicator moving higher.  Is there anything different in the market from yesterday to today?  Not really.  But this game runs on emotions both ways.  It appears that perhaps now a double bottom is in for the major stock averages.  However we need to break through the declining tops line that began at the end of September to really be out of the woods.  Hasn't happened yet.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up.  My SPY December calls are now actually showing a small profit.  That is a small miracle.  GE was up 1/3 on heavy volume.  Gold gained $7 on the futures as the US dollar fell.  That was to be expected after the dovish Fed.  The XAU added two points and GDX rose 1/2.  Volume was good.  I'm leaving in my open order for the GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  After a six hundred point gain, I'd expect the market to take a breather here before we finish off the month.  The next event will be the US and China over the weekend.  This too has the potential to be a major market mover one way or the other.  I probably need to seriously consider getting out of the SPY trade since it has already come back from the dead.  But who knows?  There's plenty of time left in the December option cycle and perhaps it will turn into a winner.  However in the near term ahead of the weekend I'd expect things to have a cautious tone.  The technical picture has improved though and if the positive seasonal factor kicks in maybe we'll continue the rally.  Asia rallied but Europe was little changed overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It was kind of a mixed market today but the Dow did manage a gain of 108 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative though.  The summation index is basically heading sideways.  The RUT and NYSE were down on the session.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed tomorrow and go from there.  We've got the end of the month coming up as well.  My SPY December calls remains losers.  GE was off 1/8 on heavy volume.  Gold fell eight bucks as the US dollar continues to climb.  The XAU lost 1 1/8, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume was good.  I did place an open order for the GDX January calls.  We'll have to see some more decline in the gold shares for this trade to be triggered.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Waiting on chairman Powell at this point in time.  That is all that we can do as the market will react one way or the other to what he says.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages remain oversold.  How they move tomorrow may lend a clue as to where we're heading.  This is a seasonally strong period for stocks usually.  However so far this year the usual seasonal factors for various groups has not panned out.  We'll see what happens this time around.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We got a much needed bounce today as the Dow soared 354 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  One day does not make a trend so we'll have to see if we get any follow through.  Once again I cannot stress the importance for the bulls for things to turn around here.  If we fail to hold the lows there will be plenty of more trouble.  the potential for a double bottom exist but it hasn't been proven yet.  My SPY December calls are deeply in the red.  Only a stunning year end rally into expiration will save them.  GE was flat on the session on very heavy volume.  It did finish off of its lows though.  I'm looking for a bottom here in December to make a longer term investment.  Gold finished little changed on the day as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A rally that springs out of nowhere is a classic bear market move.  However if we continue higher from here it could validate the potential double bottom.  So we'll simply just have to wait and see.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are trying to turn back up.  We've got the Fed head Powell speaking on Wednesday and that has some market moving potential.  Later on this weekend the US and China will sit down for a chat.  What happens there probably has more importance for the market at this stage.  On the economic front we'll get housing data and the Fed minutes on Thursday.  So there's a lot to digest after the long holiday weekend.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see if that continues tomorrow. 

It was a holiday shortened session but that didn't stop the sellers as the Dow fell 178 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  My SPY December calls are showing big losses.  In a week that is historically positive, the market was very negative.  We're short term oversold and staying that way.  We're also below the zero line on the summation index.  It appears that there is no hope for the bulls.  RUT managed to finish in the plus but unless we hold up right here and right now, the market will be in for even more downside.  GE was off over 1/8 on light volume.  Gold lost a few bucks as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU lost almost two points, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A long holiday weekend in the US so you can't put much stock in what happened today.  But like I said, if we don't hang in here on the major averages, the damage will get much worse.  And it does appear that's where we're headed.  I'm simply stuck in another losing trade and that has been the story all year.  I don't think there's anything that will happen over the weekend to change the direction in stocks.  The charts all look very negative.  More of the major indexes are ready to have their 50 day moving averages cross through their 200 day moving averages to the downside.  The carnage should continue.  Europe and Asia were generally higher though.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow tried to log a gain today but failed.  After being up over 200 points the Dow actually fell a point on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive though.  The summation index is still moving down.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow but finished well off of their highs as well.  Buying is met with selling and I don't see any change with that on the horizon.  It is the worst Thanksgiving week trading for the bulls in decades.  Perhaps the market knows something that we don't.  My SPY December calls are now solid losers and they are probably not coming back.  At this point I'm resigned to waiting for the G-20 summit and hoping for the best.  That isn't really a viable trading strategy.  Still short term oversold on the S&P 500.  GE had a slight gain of over 1/8 today on lighter volume.  Gold found a bid as the futures rose $5.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU added two points, while GDX rose 1/2.  Volume was good.  The gold shares are overbought but acting well.  If they get oversold again in December, I will try the January GDX calls.  the market rarely cooperates though and it appears that I've missed this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  An anemic attempt at a rally today and that is not good news for stocks.  In a very favorable historic time period the market has tanked.  If it doesn't hold up here we will be going much lower.  And that is the most likely outcome based on this week.  We'll get a day off tomorrow and a shortened session on Friday.  There are no reasons to buy and plenty of excuses to sell.  RUT held up where it had to today and that is the only plus along with the breadth that I see today.  But it isn't much.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher overnight.  Happy Thanksgiving everybody.

The rout continues as we had a gap down at the open.  The Dow fell 551 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  We are now back at the previous lows set at the end of October.  It doesn't feel like they will hold.  No buyers to be found as selling now is the name of the game.  The usual positive Thanksgiving week period is not happening this year.  We are short term oversold but with the gap down today it appears lower prices are in the offing.  My SPY December calls are now even bigger losers and there is little hope of this trade turning around.  Maybe a gap opening tomorrow would save the day but that isn't going to happen.  The game has changed and we'll have to see just how low we go.  GE off over an 1/8 today and the volume remains heavy.  Maybe I'll step in here next month.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar turned around.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we're at the point of either a double bottom or the market will continue to collapse from here.  the fact that the summation index made it almost back through the zero line but turned around is a big negative.  It looks like I'm headed for yet another losing trade this year.  Despite the fact that there is well over four weeks left in the December option cycle, we've already dropped so much that a minor miracle will have to occur just to break even.  Looking at the bigger picture, the S&P 500 now has a huge double top put in on a weekly basis.  The measuring objective is much lower than where we right now.  That is what we have to look forward to in the weeks and months ahead.  The normal bullish seasonality is not going to work this time around.  There will be plenty of excuses but at least be aware of what is going on.  Rallies are getting sold.  I'd expect more selling tomorrow ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.  There is nowhere to hide.  Europe and Asia were sold off as it is a global liquidation of stocks.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A downer to begin the holiday week as the Dow lost 395 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This will turn the summation index back down.  My prognosis for an up week for Thanksgiving will obviously be wrong.  The tech wreck continues and if the NASDAQ doesn't hold up right here things will get a lot worse.  My SPY December calls are now losers.  Even though there is plenty of time for this trade, my idea was to get out on strength this week.  That plan is now in doubt.  RUT got pounded today as well and it looks like more is on the way.  It appears that rallies are to be sold.  I'll wait to see what happens tomorrow but things for the bulls are looking bleak.  GE was off about 20 cents and the volume remains heavy.  Perhaps when the tax loss selling is over in December I'll take a look at buying some shares for the long haul.  Gold was up a bit and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like we'll be heading lower here for the week.  I do not think that waiting for the G-20 summit and a resolution to the US vs. China problem to suddenly appear is the right strategy.  However that may be what I'm left with unless things turn around to the upside for the rest of the week.  The short term technical indicators are oversold but not completely blown out.  They do have room for more downside.  Perhaps I'll just take the loss tomorrow and call it a year.  It's something to ponder overnight.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the S&P futures in tonights trade. 

More back and forth for the market on expiration Friday but the Dow did manage a gain of 124 points on pretty good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  the overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the red.  The summation index is moving up but without any conviction.  My SPY December calls are still showing a gain.  The VIX had a pretty good drop today but we didn't see the price gains that you would expect.  Not sure what that means.  RUT did finish higher and that's a plus.  The market is still trying to figure out what to do here as we have positive seasonal effects being weighed down by all the worldwide uncertainty.  It would help the bullish cause if the S&P 500 could get back above its 200 day moving average.  GE dropped more than 1/8 and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold was up $7 as the US dollar dropped again.  The XAU was up over a point, while GDX gained almost 1/3.  Volume was good.  It appears that I've missed the GDX January call trade if we continue higher from here in the gold shares.  I'll just have to wait and see if it gets oversold again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Two days into this trade and it is going OK for now.  Next week is usually positive but you never know what headline can come out of left field over the weekend.  I suppose that could work both ways.  The question for me is whether to simply get out of this trade before the end of next week or hold it longer.  As long as the summation index continues higher I'll favor bullish outcomes.  But to really turn bullish I'd have to see the VIX get below its 200 day average and break the 15 level.  I do not think that is going to happen anytime soon.  AAPL has had a couple of up days and if that can get going to the upside it would drag tech stocks along with it.  But it hasn't happened yet.  There is room for the short term technical indicators on the S&P 500 to move up.  That's a plus.  I guess I'll have to look things over this weekend and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Today we opened lower and closed higher for a one day reversal to the upside as the back and forth continues.  The Dow gained 208 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving back up.  The short term technical indicators are trying to turn around.  It appears that I was a day early for this SPY December call trade.  The position is showing a profit but I could have gotten a better strike price if I had waited a day.  But hindsight is always after the fact.  You have to go on what you see at the time.  I did think that things were going to turn back up and they have for a day.  But that doesn't mean that the decline has ended for now but I think that it has.  We'll see how things go from here.  I believe that we'll get at least a drift higher next week.  This may or may not be a trade to hold on to.  GE lost fifteen cents and the volume remains very above normal.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX was up 1/4.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've put a halt to the decline for now.  You might hear some talk of a reverse head and shoulders patterns on some indexes but what it really looks like are some complex bottoms being put in.  That is only if we continue to move up from here.  Nothing is set in concrete just yet.  However I do like the odds of things moving up from here and that is why I was willing to place the trade.  Thanksgiving week should be positive but what happens after that is anybody's guess.  If the technical indicators do in fact turn around here, the chances for a successful trade increase.  But there's plenty of time in the December option cycle and the market will go where it wants.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  Europe has plenty of uncertainty with the looming deal for Brexit overhanging the markets there.  We'll see how we close out the trading week tomorrow.

More volatility today as the Dow dropped 206 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  This will turn the summation index back down.  No real news for the market movement today.  It was also a one day reversal to the downside, opening higher and closing lower.  We did finish up from the lows.  My open order for the SPY December puts was not filled on the decline so I adjusted it to a higher strike price.  That order was filled, so I'm in the trade.  The technical indicators are mid-range right now.  We are oversold on one of my other technical indicators.  I may be early on this trade but I do think that it will work barring a complete collapse here.  We do have plenty of room to go lower for a retest of the recent lows though.  GE was off almost 1/3 and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold gained $10 on a flight to safety.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was good.  Perhaps the January gold share calls are a good idea after all.  But one day is not a trend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is back on the rise and there seems to be a plethora of sellers out there.  Why take on a call trade here?  I do think that the coming days are going to tell us a lot about the market.  If we continue going down from here, then things are a lot worse than I think.  If we hold up here and turn back higher, then my idea of getting some SPY calls here is going to work.  There are a lot of negatives technically to contend with here and that is not on my side for this trade.  However things do tend to get stretched both ways in the game.  A lot of what is going on now seems to be due to the decline in AAPL.  This drop won't last forever either.  I also would like to be long ahead of the Thanksgiving week and now I am.  So we'll see how this plays out in the coming sessions.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We bounced around today but the Dow finished with a loss of 100 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving higher but without the gusto of a week ago.  The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow.  I did leave in an open order for the SPY December calls.  Although the technical indicators aren't oversold, we are almost at five down days in a row for the S&P.  I also would like to try and get long here before the Thanksgiving week, which is usually positive.  There's no guarantees of course but unless the summation index turns around, I'll be feeling pretty good if this order gets filled.  We'll get CPI tomorrow and that could be a market mover.  GE found some buyers today and gained almost 2/3 on very heavy volume.  Gold was slightly lower on the futures as the US dollar lost some ground.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  I'm still considering the GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is trying to figure out what to do here.  The VIX is at 20, which implies that we are still in for some big moves one way or the other in the stock market.  Like I said yesterday, some averages are about to get the kiss of death with regards to their moving averages.  That is not a long term positive.  I am however a believer in the SPY calls here for a trade of about a week or so.  A bit more decline should get the open order filled and then we'll go from there.  Plenty of time in the December option cycle and I will not be trying a November option trade with only three days left.  Things most likely will slow down next week but I believe that there will be a positive bias.  I could be wrong.  Oil is getting slammed and that could be a concern for growth going forward.  Or it may just be a product of that particular market.  We'll know as time goes on.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

The Dow got clobbered today and lost 602 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up but not by much.  The short term technical indicators have turned around and they still have plenty of room to fall.  I guess trying to get the SPY puts at the end of last week was the right idea.  But I'm not moving on to the SPY December calls.  If we continue to see weakness this week, that will be the next trade.  The small stocks were weaker today and that is indeed a negative.  We are in a seasonal period of market strength but you wouldn't know it by today price action.  The VIX also spiked again.  It did not make it below the 200 day moving average.  If it can't get below the 15 to 16 level, then I think that we will have to say that the market has changed.  So there is plenty to keep an eye on going forward.  GE continues to drop and lost around 2/3 today.  Volume remains extremely heavy to the downside.  Gold fell as the US dollar rallied to a new recent high.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was average.  I'm still considering the GDX January calls but the fundamentals here are not favorable for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps today begins the trip back down to retest the lows of the move down in October.  Or maybe the whole market has changed and rallies are to be sold from here on out.  Always plenty of unanswered questions in this game.  RUT and NYA are about to have their 50 day moving averages cross below their 200 day moving averages.  That's generally known as the kiss of death, with lower prices for the future.  Will these indices lead us down?  RUT is generally the trendsetter, as I have noticed before.  I certainly can't say for sure which way to go here.  However I am a believer of higher prices for the stock market going forward.  The turnaround in the summation index clearly suggests that.  Going out to the December option cycle with the extra week makes sense for me if we can see a short term oversold condition appear in the coming sessions.  The usual positive Thanksgiving time frame will be upon us next week as well.  So I'll keep an eye on things and see how it plays out this week.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  All of the players will return on Tuesday as the bond market reopens after todays holiday.  We'll see how it goes.

To the downside today as the Dow fell 201 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  We did finish well off of the worst levels for the day.  Higher producer prices were listed as the cause.  But we were short term overbought and that's what we'll pay attention to.  I never got filled on any of my SPY November put orders and it is another opportunity missed.  I believe that it's too late for this idea and now will focus on the calls.  I'm not sure that I'll be trying them next week for November but going out to December may be the way to go.  There is an extra week on the December options though and premiums are high.  GE dropped another 1/2 on extremely heavy volume.  This issue just can't seem to find a bottom.  How the mighty have fallen.  A former bellwether of the market is now just an afterthought.  Gold fell $15 on the futures as the US dollar rallied.  The XAU was off 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was a bit above average.  I'm still considering the GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Frustrating is what it is here for me as I've missed another chance for gains to the downside.  It wasn't as good a set up as the former decline but it was there for the taking at least.  Now I'll have to focus on when to get long.  My take on things has been pretty good lately but the trading execution hasn't worked.  This year it seems that it's been one thing or another that has inhibited my success.  You just have to keep going in the game because the market doesn't wait for anyone.  And it certainly doesn't care.  I think that the longer term trend has moved back to being positive, with the summation index now moving up.  The seasonality factor is now in the bulls favor as well.  I'll consider what to do over the weekend but I'm favoring a longer term call trade at the moment.  We'll have the Thanksgiving holiday week coming up after expiration and that is usually positive.  Europe and Asia were lower.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A pause in the rally today but the Dow did go up 10 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ lower.  We got the Fed statement today but it didn't seem to have much impact on the market.  I canceled my open SPY November put order and replaced it with a higher strike price.  This trade is really running out of time and todays price action didn't help matters.  The VIX has not yet penetrated its 200 day moving average.  When it does, I think we can forget about looking at the puts.  The option premiums have lost value as volatility has decreased.  It may be that we'll have to wait for the December option cycle to initiate the next trade.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought though for the S&P.  GE lost a dime on average volume.  Gold dropped a few bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX barely moved on light volume.  I am still looking at the GDX January calls.  We are not completely oversold here yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm trying to work out some kind of trade here before expiration.  If we continue lower from here into early next week, I'll switch to the SPY November calls for a short term attempt.  If we get some rally tomorrow, I might try the puts.  The timing will have to be spot on because there isn't really time to have things work out.  Perhaps staying out altogether is the best idea yet.  I'll see how tomorrow goes and take it from there.  Monday the stock market are open but it's a partial holiday elsewhere.  That will affect the volume and amount of players.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It appears that the stock market liked the election results and that might be an understatement.  The Dow soared 545 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is climbing higher.  I keep putting in open orders for the SPY November puts and adjusting them.  None have been filled yet but this seems like it isn't the right strategy here.  We are short term overbought now on some of the technical indicators.  But the market seems to be taking on a life of its own here as sellers have somehow disappeared.  The VIX is back at its 200 day moving average and we'll see what happens here.  RUT is overbought now as well but that doesn't mean it won't stay that way.  I'm going to have to reconsider what I'm doing here with the attempt at the puts overnight.  GE was off almost 1/4 and the volume is still high.  Oversold and staying that way here.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So what do we do from here?  It looks like there will be no snap back to the broken declining tops line like there usually is.  It appears that a V bottom has taken place.  We are in a seasonally bullish period for stocks.  The summation index is moving higher.  The smart plays from here would have to be on the long side.  Waiting for some kind of pullback would be the prudent suggestion.  But it doesn't look like there will be one anytime soon.  I was extremely lucky that I did not get filled on my put orders yesterday because I would have gotten crushed.  At least I made the right adjustments there.  I'm sure others weren't so lucky.  I'll reconsider my overall strategy here tonight.  Seven days to go in the November option cycle, so the risk of a trade here is high.  At least the premiums have come down some.  Asia was up with the exception of Japan.  Europe rallied as well.  We'll look for some more upside follow through tomorrow.  

Another day to the plus side as the Dow added 173 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The Dow is acting like it wants to move up regardless of the election results.  I did place an open order for some SPY November calls but it wasn't filled.  There is not a good signal for the puts here yet but I do think that the market will move lower off of the election results.  But it is better to stick with the technicals.  The VIX still has room to move down and RUT was up today.  This implies further upside in the short term.  I'm still waiting for some kind of snap back to the down trend line that we broke last week.  Hasn't happened yet and perhaps we are in the midst of a V bottom.  If we do continues higher from here it will set up a short term put trade before expiration.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  It seems as though markets were in somewhat of a holding pattern ahead of the US elections.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I think that it's safe to say the bottom is in for the S&P 500.  Of course we said that last week but the price action since then confirms it in my mind.  Declines can be purchased in my humble opinion.  Whether or not we get one worth buying is the question.  We'll have to see what the reaction is to the election results is and take it from there.  There is still some room to move higher for the short term technical indicators for most of the major indices.  Patience may be a virtue at the moment.  Asia was higher and Europe a touch lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the ballot box and the markets reaction tonight. 

A mixed bag today but the Dow managed a nice gain of 190 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The NASDAQ had a loss for the day led by a decline in AAPL.  RUT barely moved as well.  I think we'll get some market movement after the election results tomorrow night but I could be wrong.  There isn't exactly a clear signal right now but I did place an open order today for the SPY November puts.  It wasn't filled.  I will probably try again before the close tomorrow.  The VIX is making its way into oversold territory and still has an elevated reading.  This implies that we will remain seeing triple digit gains or losses in the coming sessions.  GE was flat on the day and the volume remains pretty heavy.  Gold didn't have much of a change and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX barely moved again on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators are moving higher but are not completely overbought yet.  Some of the smaller stock indicators are more mid-range than anything else.  Taking a short position here is not without risk.  Not much on the economic front this week.  I am intermediate term bullish here because the summation index was blown out to below the zero line and we have now moved back up.  Declines can be bought and there may be an opportunity to try the SPY November calls here as well before option expiration.  The put trade that I'm contemplating now is more of an election based theory than anything else.  I'll think about it some more tonight but there is a chance that I'll put it on.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.   

A pause in the bounce today as the Dow fell 109 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The jobs report was stronger than expected.  After an initial pop to the upside the market sold off.  It wasn't as bad as it has been lately and I will again have to say that the decline has ended.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to roll over but it hasn't happened yet.  I'm not exactly sure what the next trade will be.  I may simply wait for the move lower to fill the recent gap.  If that were to occur, then I could try the SPY calls.  If we continue higher form here into the Tuesday session, then I may try the SPY puts for after the election results.  I'm not exactly sure and will have to consider the possibilities over the weekend.  GE lost almost thirty cents and the volume remains extremely heavy.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX basically finished unchanged on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  That being the case, I do not want to attempt any trading ideas at the moment.  I'll try and get a good nights sleep and take it from there.  It was a good week for the bulls as the market stopped going down.  Today may have been the beginning of a retest of the recent lows.  If so that will set us up for the SPY November calls at some point next week.  There's still a couple of weeks left in the November option cycle.  Asia and Europe were generally higher to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow added another 264 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index has turned around and is moving up.  I think that we can say now that the decline is over.  We may get a retest of the recent lows but that's not a given.  The action off the recent lows is all positive so far and the short term technical indicators have plenty of room to move up.  The VIX is now below 20 but I'd probably like to see it drop a bit lower before thinking about trying the SPY November puts for a short term trade.  We've got the employment report tomorrow and that could be a market mover one way or the other.  I do not expect us to simply go straight up from here.  GE was off another half and the volume remains very heavy.  Very oversold here but no end in sight to its decline.  Gold rallied over $20 as the US dollar got crushed.  The XAU gained almost three points, while GDX rose 2/3.  Volume was good.  The GDX daily chart pattern had a classic head and shoulders bottom breakout and then a snap back return to the neckline.  Even though I was looking for the retracement to get some GDX calls, when it happened I stayed out.  The decline back was steep and I was afraid to take the trade even though that was what I was looking for.  That was regrettable and certainly cannot be tolerated if you want to be successful.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So where do we go from here?  The short term down trend line from the start of the recent decline has been broken.  We are getting back close to the 200 day moving averages in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.  That would be a place where the bounce might stall.  Again, that's not a guarantee but a logical place to pause.  We should also look for an eventual drop back towards the line that we just broke through.  That will be the logical place to attempt the SPY calls.  Hopefully if all goes as planned, I'll be able to pull the trigger this time around.  I may put in an order for the SPY November puts tonight, in case we see a jump put of the box tomorrow on the jobs report.  However I may be early here as we still have room to run on the short term indicators.  If that is the case waiting until early next week ahead of the election will be the alternate plan.  We'll see if the market cooperates.  Asia was up with the exception of Japan and Europe was generally higher.  We'll see how the employment report affects things tomorrow.

We got some upside follow through for a change as the Dow rose 241 points on very heavy volume.  the advance/declines were positive.  The summation index has now stalled its downside momentum and is trying to turn around.  I think that it will but that doesn't mean that we won't see some backing and filling in the coming days.  We did finish off of our best levels of the day because at one point the Dow was up over 400.  We had a gap at the open today as well which was a positive.  We are still below the 200 day moving averages for the major stock indices.  However I'm in the bullish camp now and would be looking to purchase some SPY calls if we take a run back down towards the recent lows.  That would change though if we kept moving higher near term and created an overbought short term condition.  We certainly are nowhere near that yet.  But the decline has seemed to be putting on the brakes here.  GE was off a few cents on very heavy volume.  It managed to close above $10.  Gold was off almost $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX dropped 1/4.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple days of upside doesn't mean that we're out of the woods but lets just say the horizon is getting clearer.  The positive RSI divergences panned out and that is a plus for the technical picture.  The summation index is also now blown out in negative territory which is another reason to be positive about where we're going from here.  The odds are that the market breadth will continue to get better from here.  But the market goes where it wants.  So like I said, I'll be looking for some kind of retest of the recent lows in the SPY at 260 to establish the next call trade.  There's still over two weeks to go in the November option cycle.  The VIX is over 21, so big moves both ways are still in the cards.  Profits will go to the nimble as the volatility premium in price remains high on the option front.  For now it will be watch and wait for the next opportunity.  Europe and Asia traded higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings with the start of a new month ahead of the jobs report. 

A nice move higher today as the Dow climbed 431 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down but is trying to turn around again.  The market has tried to carve out a bottom here and I think that it will be successful.  The positive RSI divergences have most likely worked this time around.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up.  We'll have to see if there is any follow through tomorrow but I think that at this point declines can be bought.  I think that the near term low set yesterday for SPY at 260 will hold.  Any decline back towards that number can be bought in my opinion.  A lot of the medium term indicators as well are at points where upside has taken place.  It may be too late for the November calls right now but if we get some more downside, there's a chance this trade could work.  There is still a lot of volatility premium in the November options though.  The timing has to be spot on.  GE announced its earnings along with a dividend cut today.  It sank a point on incredibly extremely high volume.  That may have washed out all the sellers as it traded below $10 a share.  Gold dropped a couple bucks as the US dollar rose.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Now the question is what do we do from here.  I'm getting bullish here because it appears we have had a washout yesterday to the downside.  If we get any sort of retest move back to the 260 level on the SPY before option expiration, that will be the time to try the calls.  If we continue to move higher form here and get short term overbought, then that would be the time to try the SPY puts.  the market rarely cooperates with what we want to do.  there is still plenty of time in the November option cycle to make something happen.  We also have potential market moving events coming forward with the employment report followed by the midterm elections.  So we will have to keep an eye on things and act appropriately.  It won't be easy but at least we have a couple ideas on how to gain some profits in the November option cycle.  Asia was higher with the exception of Hong Kong while Europe was mixed.  We'll see if the rally in the US spills over to the foreign markets overnight.  

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 245 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 245 market would suggest.  The summation index continues lower.  We did have a good bounce in the final half hour or things could have been worse.  I did place an open order for some SPY November calls but it wasn't filled.  I may try again tomorrow but the risk is pretty high along with the option premiums.  The VIX remains at 24 and change.  Still oversold and staying there for the short term technical indicators of the major stock averages.  We may have found a short term bottom today for stocks but we'll know more after tomorrows price action.  Although the calls here could just be a catch the falling knife attempt.  I'll consider leaving in an open order after we see where the futures are tonight.  GE was off about 1/8 and volume is still heavy.  Gold dropped $5 as the US dollar was stronger today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We made it to a 10% correction in the S&P today.  Whether or not that stops the selling has yet to be seen.  RUT looks like it is trying to hammer out some kind of bottom here and that would be a plus for the bulls if it does occur.  But it hasn't happened yet.  At least stocks did come up from their lows today and the positive RSI divergences on the major index charts are still in place.  Only a couple of days left here in October so we'll have to see how things close out.  We do have economic data out this week, including the jobs report on Friday.  But in a market environment like this, none of that seems to matter.  We certainly won't stay oversold forever but the jury is still out as to when this current debacle runs its course.  I do think that perhaps now is the time to try the SPY calls for a short term trade.  I'll be checking the tone of things tonight.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.  

Rock and roll seems to be the name of the game now as the Dow fell 296 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  At least today we didn't close on the lows of the session but I do think that the action was sloppy at best.  No follow through to yesterdays gains.  GDP came in good but it doesn't matter when we are in a market like this.  Which is why it is always a good idea to stick with the technical basis.  We're still oversold and staying that way as the decline continues.  I did place an open order for the SPY November calls but it did not come close to being filled.  This is a risky idea but I do feel at some point it will work.  I may try it again on weakness Monday.  But it would have to be short term in nature.  We've seen volume really pick up in the past few days.  What I'd like to see is a blowout downside move on heavy volume that would qualify as a washout.  Today could have been it.  But you don't want to start basing things on guessing in this game.  Another problem with trading here is the option premiums have gone through the roof due to the volatility.  Both puts and calls are expensive.  GE was down another 1/2 on heavy volume.  The gold futures were up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight gains on heavy volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The positive divergences that I've spoke of this week are still in place.  So a better move up from here is still possible.  The problem here is that there has been no sustained buying lately, just sustained selling.  I do think that everybody now recognizes that fact.  When everyone is on one side of the trade it usually pays to take the other.  That's another reason to maybe try the calls on Monday.  I'm going to have to look everything over this weekend and decide.  I was willing to try that trade today but it would have taken a much bigger drop to get my order filled.  The VIX is over 24 so any price moves will be big going forward.  But it cuts both ways.  I suppose I'll just have to evaluate where I think we're at in the next two days and try to decide if the risk is worth it.  These are some interesting times though.  Europe and Asia were both lower last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

We got the bounce back today as the Dow gained 401 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues lower.  I'm inclined to believe that we will see more than a one day rally here.  There are plenty of potential positive divergences on many of the stock index charts.  I'm considering getting some SPY November calls on any weakness but would prefer to wait until Monday to attempt this idea.  It also may already be too late.  We'll have to see how it goes tomorrow.  Volatility is rampant at the moment.  But we do have what I was looking for.  A lower low in price and a higher McClellan oscillator.  Don't get me wrong.  I'm not looking for any kind of sustained rally here.  But I do think a trading move higher can occur within the next few days and may have begun today.  We'll get plenty of earnings along with GDP to digest tomorrow.  You will have to keep a close eye on the short term indicators to try and attempt anything in the current environment.  So we'll see.  GE dropped almost 2/3 on good volume.  Gold dropped a bit again today as the US dollar was up.  The XAU fell 3 1/3, while GDX shed 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  GDX is now back at the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern at 19.  This would be the logical spot to try the calls here but I don't think that I can bring myself to try it.  The rally we saw in the gold shares was primarily driven by the big caps gold stocks.  If the small caps led the way, then I would think that this move had staying power.  I will now most likely wait until the gold share indicators get oversold and they are not there yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose another way to look at todays price action would be the rally out of nowhere that is consistent with down moves.  But we've already had one of those already.  The summation index is still moving down and that implies lower prices going forward.  But it won't go down forever and it is getting pretty low.  Now it could continue to go lower but I don't think by much more.  The positive divergences, if they are true, would make this the ideal time to get long some index calls.  But you don't want to fall in love with any positions because the market is still trying to find its way.  It is an interesting time.  I don't know how the GDP report tomorrow will be interpreted.  It looks like there may have been some earnings missed after the bell.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how the week closes out tomorrow. 

The market got slammed again today as the Dow fell 608 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Oversold, staying that way and the expected bounce that I thought would occur certainly didn't happen.  The VIX is now over 25 and I don't think we'll stay up here forever but what do I know?  The breadth today certainly wasn't as bad as a down 600 market would imply.  But you can't argue with price and buyers have been overtaken by sellers.  It was exactly two weeks ago that we had the huge drop in stocks and I'd expect to see some follow downside through tomorrow.  But I don't expect this to go on too much longer because the technical indicators are getting pretty blown out once again.  I'm not looking for the SPY November calls right here as I was yesterday.  But if things continue to progress lower, I can make a case for them after the weekend.  GE was off 1/2 and the volume remains good.  Gold was off a bit on a higher US dollar.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was lighter than it has been.  No real flight to safety for gold today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock market is back in free fall mode.  We've crossed the zero line in the summation index and we're falling apart on cue.  Where can we expect to see some support for the S&P 500?  My first guess would be the 2600 level, as that has stopped the previous recent drops.  There is better support at 2500 off of some previous tops made back in 2017 but we are a long way from there.  Perhaps I'll try the SPY calls if we get down to 2600.  At the rate we're going this could happen tomorrow.  But any attempt at the calls here would be fraught with risk because we are in a pretty decent decline here and we are about to hit the 10% correction level for the S&P.  We're now below the 200 day moving average on all of the major stock indices.  There's no place to hide.  So we'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.  The sidelines seems to be the safest bet here at the moment.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.    

Quite a session today as the Dow fell 125 points on heavy volume.  The Dow was off over 500 points early and almost made it all the way back before dropping in the final half hour.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the summation index is still heading lower.  Oversold and staying that way and that is never a positive sign.  That said, the heavy volume today makes me think that a short term low is in place.  I'll be looking for higher prices near term.  We now have potential positive divergences for the S&P on the RSI and the McClellan oscillator.  Now they haven't come to fruition just yet but the potential is there.  I may look to purchase some SPY November calls on weakness tomorrow.  This would not be a long term trade but it could have a chance for a short term profit.  We had a spike in the VIX but it finished well off of its highs.  RUT and a number of the other major stock indices look to have put in daily hammers on their candlestick charts.  So we'll see.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was good.  Gold found a flight to safety today as the futures rose eight bucks.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves up on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was encouraging to see some kind of rally today even if we didn't make it back to positive territory.  Perhaps that can translate into some buying overseas because we are currently experiencing a worldwide liquidation of stock assets.  One of my indicators is flashing a buy signal for the S&P after todays price action.  Combine that with the other oversold technical indicators and you can see why it may be prudent to buy any weakness tomorrow.  Throw in the potential positive divergences that are in place and you can see that buying some calls here makes technical sense.  That doesn't mean it will work but at least there will be some things in your favor and the odds should be on your side.  I'll go over the SPY options tonight and decide what to do.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle though.  Not to mention that as long as the summation index is going lower the trend for price overall is down.  But that won't last forever and they won't ring a bell at the bottom to let you know.  Europe and Asia got clobbered overnight.  We'll see if we get any bounce tomorrow.