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Wednesday, November 14, 2018

More volatility today as the Dow dropped 206 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  This will turn the summation index back down.  No real news for the market movement today.  It was also a one day reversal to the downside, opening higher and closing lower.  We did finish up from the lows.  My open order for the SPY December puts was not filled on the decline so I adjusted it to a higher strike price.  That order was filled, so I'm in the trade.  The technical indicators are mid-range right now.  We are oversold on one of my other technical indicators.  I may be early on this trade but I do think that it will work barring a complete collapse here.  We do have plenty of room to go lower for a retest of the recent lows though.  GE was off almost 1/3 and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold gained $10 on a flight to safety.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was good.  Perhaps the January gold share calls are a good idea after all.  But one day is not a trend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is back on the rise and there seems to be a plethora of sellers out there.  Why take on a call trade here?  I do think that the coming days are going to tell us a lot about the market.  If we continue going down from here, then things are a lot worse than I think.  If we hold up here and turn back higher, then my idea of getting some SPY calls here is going to work.  There are a lot of negatives technically to contend with here and that is not on my side for this trade.  However things do tend to get stretched both ways in the game.  A lot of what is going on now seems to be due to the decline in AAPL.  This drop won't last forever either.  I also would like to be long ahead of the Thanksgiving week and now I am.  So we'll see how this plays out in the coming sessions.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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