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Thursday, November 15, 2018

Today we opened lower and closed higher for a one day reversal to the upside as the back and forth continues.  The Dow gained 208 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving back up.  The short term technical indicators are trying to turn around.  It appears that I was a day early for this SPY December call trade.  The position is showing a profit but I could have gotten a better strike price if I had waited a day.  But hindsight is always after the fact.  You have to go on what you see at the time.  I did think that things were going to turn back up and they have for a day.  But that doesn't mean that the decline has ended for now but I think that it has.  We'll see how things go from here.  I believe that we'll get at least a drift higher next week.  This may or may not be a trade to hold on to.  GE lost fifteen cents and the volume remains very above normal.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX was up 1/4.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've put a halt to the decline for now.  You might hear some talk of a reverse head and shoulders patterns on some indexes but what it really looks like are some complex bottoms being put in.  That is only if we continue to move up from here.  Nothing is set in concrete just yet.  However I do like the odds of things moving up from here and that is why I was willing to place the trade.  Thanksgiving week should be positive but what happens after that is anybody's guess.  If the technical indicators do in fact turn around here, the chances for a successful trade increase.  But there's plenty of time in the December option cycle and the market will go where it wants.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  Europe has plenty of uncertainty with the looming deal for Brexit overhanging the markets there.  We'll see how we close out the trading week tomorrow.

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