Friday, November 30, 2018
We finished the month on a positive note as the Dow gained 199 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. My SPY December calls somehow made it back into the black. Not sure exactly what we saw in the market today unless it already knows there will be good news coming out over the weekend. Monday still hinges on the China/US meeting tonight. It's simply a guess as to what transpires there. The short term technical indicators for the S&P are getting overbought. The weekly chart for the S&P looks like it could be a double bottom. The indicators there are trying to turn around and if they do the double bottom will be confirmed but it hasn't happened yet. A lot depends on outcome of the G-20 meeting. GE was off almost 1/2 today on heavy volume. No bottom here yet I guess. Gold lost a couple bucks as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses again and finished up from the lows of the session. Volume was light. I'm leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Another volatile month for stocks but it appears that a bottom may be in place. Temporarily at least. We'll still need to see the VIX crack the 15 to 16 level to the downside for the all clear on a rally. Getting short term oversold there though and any negative headline could easily see us heading back towards 20. Three weeks to go in the December option cycle. The fact that my SPY options were dead and have came back to life cannot be ignored. The question now is do I just get out and save the money for another trade or do I hold on and see if the market really has formed a double bottom? I'm leaning towards the latter. I will have to check all the charts over the weekend though. Plenty of economic data due out next week once we digest the results of the China/US get together. So there will be plenty to consider moving forward from here. I'll try to remain objective as we start the month of December. We'll see if the seasonal strength decides to kick in or not. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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