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Monday, November 12, 2018

The Dow got clobbered today and lost 602 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up but not by much.  The short term technical indicators have turned around and they still have plenty of room to fall.  I guess trying to get the SPY puts at the end of last week was the right idea.  But I'm not moving on to the SPY December calls.  If we continue to see weakness this week, that will be the next trade.  The small stocks were weaker today and that is indeed a negative.  We are in a seasonal period of market strength but you wouldn't know it by today price action.  The VIX also spiked again.  It did not make it below the 200 day moving average.  If it can't get below the 15 to 16 level, then I think that we will have to say that the market has changed.  So there is plenty to keep an eye on going forward.  GE continues to drop and lost around 2/3 today.  Volume remains extremely heavy to the downside.  Gold fell as the US dollar rallied to a new recent high.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was average.  I'm still considering the GDX January calls but the fundamentals here are not favorable for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps today begins the trip back down to retest the lows of the move down in October.  Or maybe the whole market has changed and rallies are to be sold from here on out.  Always plenty of unanswered questions in this game.  RUT and NYA are about to have their 50 day moving averages cross below their 200 day moving averages.  That's generally known as the kiss of death, with lower prices for the future.  Will these indices lead us down?  RUT is generally the trendsetter, as I have noticed before.  I certainly can't say for sure which way to go here.  However I am a believer of higher prices for the stock market going forward.  The turnaround in the summation index clearly suggests that.  Going out to the December option cycle with the extra week makes sense for me if we can see a short term oversold condition appear in the coming sessions.  The usual positive Thanksgiving time frame will be upon us next week as well.  So I'll keep an eye on things and see how it plays out this week.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  All of the players will return on Tuesday as the bond market reopens after todays holiday.  We'll see how it goes.

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