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Thursday, November 01, 2018

The Dow added another 264 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index has turned around and is moving up.  I think that we can say now that the decline is over.  We may get a retest of the recent lows but that's not a given.  The action off the recent lows is all positive so far and the short term technical indicators have plenty of room to move up.  The VIX is now below 20 but I'd probably like to see it drop a bit lower before thinking about trying the SPY November puts for a short term trade.  We've got the employment report tomorrow and that could be a market mover one way or the other.  I do not expect us to simply go straight up from here.  GE was off another half and the volume remains very heavy.  Very oversold here but no end in sight to its decline.  Gold rallied over $20 as the US dollar got crushed.  The XAU gained almost three points, while GDX rose 2/3.  Volume was good.  The GDX daily chart pattern had a classic head and shoulders bottom breakout and then a snap back return to the neckline.  Even though I was looking for the retracement to get some GDX calls, when it happened I stayed out.  The decline back was steep and I was afraid to take the trade even though that was what I was looking for.  That was regrettable and certainly cannot be tolerated if you want to be successful.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So where do we go from here?  The short term down trend line from the start of the recent decline has been broken.  We are getting back close to the 200 day moving averages in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.  That would be a place where the bounce might stall.  Again, that's not a guarantee but a logical place to pause.  We should also look for an eventual drop back towards the line that we just broke through.  That will be the logical place to attempt the SPY calls.  Hopefully if all goes as planned, I'll be able to pull the trigger this time around.  I may put in an order for the SPY November puts tonight, in case we see a jump put of the box tomorrow on the jobs report.  However I may be early here as we still have room to run on the short term indicators.  If that is the case waiting until early next week ahead of the election will be the alternate plan.  We'll see if the market cooperates.  Asia was up with the exception of Japan and Europe was generally higher.  We'll see how the employment report affects things tomorrow.

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