Wednesday, October 31, 2018
We got some upside follow through for a change as the Dow rose 241 points on very heavy volume. the advance/declines were positive. The summation index has now stalled its downside momentum and is trying to turn around. I think that it will but that doesn't mean that we won't see some backing and filling in the coming days. We did finish off of our best levels of the day because at one point the Dow was up over 400. We had a gap at the open today as well which was a positive. We are still below the 200 day moving averages for the major stock indices. However I'm in the bullish camp now and would be looking to purchase some SPY calls if we take a run back down towards the recent lows. That would change though if we kept moving higher near term and created an overbought short term condition. We certainly are nowhere near that yet. But the decline has seemed to be putting on the brakes here. GE was off a few cents on very heavy volume. It managed to close above $10. Gold was off almost $10 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX dropped 1/4. Volume was good. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A couple days of upside doesn't mean that we're out of the woods but lets just say the horizon is getting clearer. The positive RSI divergences panned out and that is a plus for the technical picture. The summation index is also now blown out in negative territory which is another reason to be positive about where we're going from here. The odds are that the market breadth will continue to get better from here. But the market goes where it wants. So like I said, I'll be looking for some kind of retest of the recent lows in the SPY at 260 to establish the next call trade. There's still over two weeks to go in the November option cycle. The VIX is over 21, so big moves both ways are still in the cards. Profits will go to the nimble as the volatility premium in price remains high on the option front. For now it will be watch and wait for the next opportunity. Europe and Asia traded higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings with the start of a new month ahead of the jobs report.
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