Monday, October 22, 2018
Lower to start off the week as the Dow fell 127 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ was higher and RUT has held its recent lows for now so all is not lost for the bulls. We are short term oversold here so some near term upside is not out of the question. Rolling into a new option cycle so their is plenty of time for a trade once a valid signal appears. If we keep drifting lower, I'll look for the calls. If the VIX makes it back down to its 200 day moving average at around 15, I'll look for the puts. GE was off about twenty cents but the volume was pretty light. Gold dropped a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU fell a points, while GDX shed 1/8. Volume was light. I'm still looking at the GDX January calls on a drop back to 19. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Some economic data due out this week highlighted by GDP on Friday. The Feds beige book is out in the middle of the week as well. Technically speaking, some of the major stock indices look to be putting in short term double bottoms if we move up from here. That would fit in with the short term oversold condition that we seem to be in right now. That doesn't mean that the decline is over but it could provide a floor for price in the very near term. These are all potential outcomes moving forward, not set in stone. the market as always will move where it wants to. However if we do see a bounce higher tomorrow it would make the potential double bottoms look a lot better. If not, then that scenario will be void. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.
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