Thursday, October 25, 2018
We got the bounce back today as the Dow gained 401 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues lower. I'm inclined to believe that we will see more than a one day rally here. There are plenty of potential positive divergences on many of the stock index charts. I'm considering getting some SPY November calls on any weakness but would prefer to wait until Monday to attempt this idea. It also may already be too late. We'll have to see how it goes tomorrow. Volatility is rampant at the moment. But we do have what I was looking for. A lower low in price and a higher McClellan oscillator. Don't get me wrong. I'm not looking for any kind of sustained rally here. But I do think a trading move higher can occur within the next few days and may have begun today. We'll get plenty of earnings along with GDP to digest tomorrow. You will have to keep a close eye on the short term indicators to try and attempt anything in the current environment. So we'll see. GE dropped almost 2/3 on good volume. Gold dropped a bit again today as the US dollar was up. The XAU fell 3 1/3, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was heavy. GDX is now back at the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern at 19. This would be the logical spot to try the calls here but I don't think that I can bring myself to try it. The rally we saw in the gold shares was primarily driven by the big caps gold stocks. If the small caps led the way, then I would think that this move had staying power. I will now most likely wait until the gold share indicators get oversold and they are not there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I suppose another way to look at todays price action would be the rally out of nowhere that is consistent with down moves. But we've already had one of those already. The summation index is still moving down and that implies lower prices going forward. But it won't go down forever and it is getting pretty low. Now it could continue to go lower but I don't think by much more. The positive divergences, if they are true, would make this the ideal time to get long some index calls. But you don't want to fall in love with any positions because the market is still trying to find its way. It is an interesting time. I don't know how the GDP report tomorrow will be interpreted. It looks like there may have been some earnings missed after the bell. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see how the week closes out tomorrow.
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