Tuesday, October 30, 2018
A nice move higher today as the Dow climbed 431 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down but is trying to turn around again. The market has tried to carve out a bottom here and I think that it will be successful. The positive RSI divergences have most likely worked this time around. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We'll have to see if there is any follow through tomorrow but I think that at this point declines can be bought. I think that the near term low set yesterday for SPY at 260 will hold. Any decline back towards that number can be bought in my opinion. A lot of the medium term indicators as well are at points where upside has taken place. It may be too late for the November calls right now but if we get some more downside, there's a chance this trade could work. There is still a lot of volatility premium in the November options though. The timing has to be spot on. GE announced its earnings along with a dividend cut today. It sank a point on incredibly extremely high volume. That may have washed out all the sellers as it traded below $10 a share. Gold dropped a couple bucks as the US dollar rose. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Now the question is what do we do from here. I'm getting bullish here because it appears we have had a washout yesterday to the downside. If we get any sort of retest move back to the 260 level on the SPY before option expiration, that will be the time to try the calls. If we continue to move higher form here and get short term overbought, then that would be the time to try the SPY puts. the market rarely cooperates with what we want to do. there is still plenty of time in the November option cycle to make something happen. We also have potential market moving events coming forward with the employment report followed by the midterm elections. So we will have to keep an eye on things and act appropriately. It won't be easy but at least we have a couple ideas on how to gain some profits in the November option cycle. Asia was higher with the exception of Hong Kong while Europe was mixed. We'll see if the rally in the US spills over to the foreign markets overnight.
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