Thursday, October 11, 2018
No buyers just yet as the Dow fell 545 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is driving down lower and we are about to pass through the zero line, hence the falling apart. The S&P 500 has now closed below its 200 day moving average. RUT continues to drop below its 200 day so the selling probably isn't completely done yet. Oversold, staying that way and that is about all you can say. I did try the SPY October calls today but my order wasn't filled and I could be early as well. This is a very risky trade at this point because we are heading straight down. I do see that the futures are coming back after the close though. I did leave in an open order for some of the SPY October calls but I'll consider what to do here overnight. A bounce is way overdue but I don't expect any long lasting rally at this point. We are as oversold as we've been since the drop in the beginning of the year. GE was off 1/2 on very heavy volume. Gold got the flight to safety today as the futures climbed over $30. The XAU jumped 4 1/2, while GDX added 1 1/4. Volume was extremely heavy. Looks like another missed trade here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Both big and small caps are now below their 200 day moving averages. RUT has led the way here folks and it is far below its 200 day. There will be more downside in the weeks to come at this rate. However the extreme oversold short term condition should lend its way for a profitable call trade before expiration. The problem here will be the timing, which will have to spot on. This trade may be too late as well, with the positive futures after the bell. But we are overdone to the downside in my opinion. Crazy week so far and we just have to get through Friday now. Asia and Europe got crushed as well overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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