Monday, October 29, 2018
It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index fell 245 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 245 market would suggest. The summation index continues lower. We did have a good bounce in the final half hour or things could have been worse. I did place an open order for some SPY November calls but it wasn't filled. I may try again tomorrow but the risk is pretty high along with the option premiums. The VIX remains at 24 and change. Still oversold and staying there for the short term technical indicators of the major stock averages. We may have found a short term bottom today for stocks but we'll know more after tomorrows price action. Although the calls here could just be a catch the falling knife attempt. I'll consider leaving in an open order after we see where the futures are tonight. GE was off about 1/8 and volume is still heavy. Gold dropped $5 as the US dollar was stronger today. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on lighter volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We made it to a 10% correction in the S&P today. Whether or not that stops the selling has yet to be seen. RUT looks like it is trying to hammer out some kind of bottom here and that would be a plus for the bulls if it does occur. But it hasn't happened yet. At least stocks did come up from their lows today and the positive RSI divergences on the major index charts are still in place. Only a couple of days left here in October so we'll have to see how things close out. We do have economic data out this week, including the jobs report on Friday. But in a market environment like this, none of that seems to matter. We certainly won't stay oversold forever but the jury is still out as to when this current debacle runs its course. I do think that perhaps now is the time to try the SPY calls for a short term trade. I'll be checking the tone of things tonight. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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