Tuesday, October 23, 2018
Quite a session today as the Dow fell 125 points on heavy volume. The Dow was off over 500 points early and almost made it all the way back before dropping in the final half hour. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the summation index is still heading lower. Oversold and staying that way and that is never a positive sign. That said, the heavy volume today makes me think that a short term low is in place. I'll be looking for higher prices near term. We now have potential positive divergences for the S&P on the RSI and the McClellan oscillator. Now they haven't come to fruition just yet but the potential is there. I may look to purchase some SPY November calls on weakness tomorrow. This would not be a long term trade but it could have a chance for a short term profit. We had a spike in the VIX but it finished well off of its highs. RUT and a number of the other major stock indices look to have put in daily hammers on their candlestick charts. So we'll see. GE was up 1/3 and the volume was good. Gold found a flight to safety today as the futures rose eight bucks. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves up on good volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It was encouraging to see some kind of rally today even if we didn't make it back to positive territory. Perhaps that can translate into some buying overseas because we are currently experiencing a worldwide liquidation of stock assets. One of my indicators is flashing a buy signal for the S&P after todays price action. Combine that with the other oversold technical indicators and you can see why it may be prudent to buy any weakness tomorrow. Throw in the potential positive divergences that are in place and you can see that buying some calls here makes technical sense. That doesn't mean it will work but at least there will be some things in your favor and the odds should be on your side. I'll go over the SPY options tonight and decide what to do. Plenty of time in the November option cycle though. Not to mention that as long as the summation index is going lower the trend for price overall is down. But that won't last forever and they won't ring a bell at the bottom to let you know. Europe and Asia got clobbered overnight. We'll see if we get any bounce tomorrow.
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