Thursday, October 18, 2018
Back down today as the Dow fell 327 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index tried to turn around but it is now heading lower. I suppose the next thing to look for here is a lower price with a higher reading in the McClellan oscillator. That would set up a but signal for the SPY November calls. But we have to remember that we've breached the zero line in the summation index. Which means we could simply continue to travel lower. Right now things aren't setting up as I had hoped so I'll remain on the sidelines for now. We'll get expiration tomorrow and take it from there. GE was up almost twenty cents on good volume. Gold was up a buck or so and the US dollar was higher as well. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility is the name of the game again. It makes for tougher trading decisions. The VIX didn't make it back down to 15 before spiking up again. But that is the level that I'm looking for in order to try the SPY puts. I may have to adjust my thinking there. Perhaps today started the process of retesting the recent lows. It certainly looks that way with regards to RUT. Since RUT has been the leader here, keep your eyes on it. It is short term oversold and the technical indicators have just rolled over from a low level. We'll have to wait and see if there is any downside follow through tomorrow. The S&P 500 is still trying to hold on to the 200 day moving average. The next few trading session should tell the story there. There's money to be made in this environment if you're up to the task. Europe and Asia were both down last night. We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow as we close out another trading week.
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