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Tuesday, November 13, 2018

We bounced around today but the Dow finished with a loss of 100 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving higher but without the gusto of a week ago.  The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow.  I did leave in an open order for the SPY December calls.  Although the technical indicators aren't oversold, we are almost at five down days in a row for the S&P.  I also would like to try and get long here before the Thanksgiving week, which is usually positive.  There's no guarantees of course but unless the summation index turns around, I'll be feeling pretty good if this order gets filled.  We'll get CPI tomorrow and that could be a market mover.  GE found some buyers today and gained almost 2/3 on very heavy volume.  Gold was slightly lower on the futures as the US dollar lost some ground.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  I'm still considering the GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is trying to figure out what to do here.  The VIX is at 20, which implies that we are still in for some big moves one way or the other in the stock market.  Like I said yesterday, some averages are about to get the kiss of death with regards to their moving averages.  That is not a long term positive.  I am however a believer in the SPY calls here for a trade of about a week or so.  A bit more decline should get the open order filled and then we'll go from there.  Plenty of time in the December option cycle and I will not be trying a November option trade with only three days left.  Things most likely will slow down next week but I believe that there will be a positive bias.  I could be wrong.  Oil is getting slammed and that could be a concern for growth going forward.  Or it may just be a product of that particular market.  We'll know as time goes on.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

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