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Wednesday, November 28, 2018

The Fed spoke and the market liked what it heard as the Dow staged a powerful rally and was up 617 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  This will turn the summation index back up.  We'll need to see more good breadth to keep this indicator moving higher.  Is there anything different in the market from yesterday to today?  Not really.  But this game runs on emotions both ways.  It appears that perhaps now a double bottom is in for the major stock averages.  However we need to break through the declining tops line that began at the end of September to really be out of the woods.  Hasn't happened yet.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up.  My SPY December calls are now actually showing a small profit.  That is a small miracle.  GE was up 1/3 on heavy volume.  Gold gained $7 on the futures as the US dollar fell.  That was to be expected after the dovish Fed.  The XAU added two points and GDX rose 1/2.  Volume was good.  I'm leaving in my open order for the GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  After a six hundred point gain, I'd expect the market to take a breather here before we finish off the month.  The next event will be the US and China over the weekend.  This too has the potential to be a major market mover one way or the other.  I probably need to seriously consider getting out of the SPY trade since it has already come back from the dead.  But who knows?  There's plenty of time left in the December option cycle and perhaps it will turn into a winner.  However in the near term ahead of the weekend I'd expect things to have a cautious tone.  The technical picture has improved though and if the positive seasonal factor kicks in maybe we'll continue the rally.  Asia rallied but Europe was little changed overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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