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Wednesday, November 21, 2018

The Dow tried to log a gain today but failed.  After being up over 200 points the Dow actually fell a point on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive though.  The summation index is still moving down.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow but finished well off of their highs as well.  Buying is met with selling and I don't see any change with that on the horizon.  It is the worst Thanksgiving week trading for the bulls in decades.  Perhaps the market knows something that we don't.  My SPY December calls are now solid losers and they are probably not coming back.  At this point I'm resigned to waiting for the G-20 summit and hoping for the best.  That isn't really a viable trading strategy.  Still short term oversold on the S&P 500.  GE had a slight gain of over 1/8 today on lighter volume.  Gold found a bid as the futures rose $5.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU added two points, while GDX rose 1/2.  Volume was good.  The gold shares are overbought but acting well.  If they get oversold again in December, I will try the January GDX calls.  the market rarely cooperates though and it appears that I've missed this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  An anemic attempt at a rally today and that is not good news for stocks.  In a very favorable historic time period the market has tanked.  If it doesn't hold up here we will be going much lower.  And that is the most likely outcome based on this week.  We'll get a day off tomorrow and a shortened session on Friday.  There are no reasons to buy and plenty of excuses to sell.  RUT held up where it had to today and that is the only plus along with the breadth that I see today.  But it isn't much.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher overnight.  Happy Thanksgiving everybody.

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