Wednesday, November 07, 2018
It appears that the stock market liked the election results and that might be an understatement. The Dow soared 545 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is climbing higher. I keep putting in open orders for the SPY November puts and adjusting them. None have been filled yet but this seems like it isn't the right strategy here. We are short term overbought now on some of the technical indicators. But the market seems to be taking on a life of its own here as sellers have somehow disappeared. The VIX is back at its 200 day moving average and we'll see what happens here. RUT is overbought now as well but that doesn't mean it won't stay that way. I'm going to have to reconsider what I'm doing here with the attempt at the puts overnight. GE was off almost 1/4 and the volume is still high. Oversold and staying that way here. Gold and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So what do we do from here? It looks like there will be no snap back to the broken declining tops line like there usually is. It appears that a V bottom has taken place. We are in a seasonally bullish period for stocks. The summation index is moving higher. The smart plays from here would have to be on the long side. Waiting for some kind of pullback would be the prudent suggestion. But it doesn't look like there will be one anytime soon. I was extremely lucky that I did not get filled on my put orders yesterday because I would have gotten crushed. At least I made the right adjustments there. I'm sure others weren't so lucky. I'll reconsider my overall strategy here tonight. Seven days to go in the November option cycle, so the risk of a trade here is high. At least the premiums have come down some. Asia was up with the exception of Japan. Europe rallied as well. We'll look for some more upside follow through tomorrow.
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