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Thursday, November 08, 2018

A pause in the rally today but the Dow did go up 10 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ lower.  We got the Fed statement today but it didn't seem to have much impact on the market.  I canceled my open SPY November put order and replaced it with a higher strike price.  This trade is really running out of time and todays price action didn't help matters.  The VIX has not yet penetrated its 200 day moving average.  When it does, I think we can forget about looking at the puts.  The option premiums have lost value as volatility has decreased.  It may be that we'll have to wait for the December option cycle to initiate the next trade.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought though for the S&P.  GE lost a dime on average volume.  Gold dropped a few bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX barely moved on light volume.  I am still looking at the GDX January calls.  We are not completely oversold here yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm trying to work out some kind of trade here before expiration.  If we continue lower from here into early next week, I'll switch to the SPY November calls for a short term attempt.  If we get some rally tomorrow, I might try the puts.  The timing will have to be spot on because there isn't really time to have things work out.  Perhaps staying out altogether is the best idea yet.  I'll see how tomorrow goes and take it from there.  Monday the stock market are open but it's a partial holiday elsewhere.  That will affect the volume and amount of players.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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