Tuesday, November 20, 2018
The rout continues as we had a gap down at the open. The Dow fell 551 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. We are now back at the previous lows set at the end of October. It doesn't feel like they will hold. No buyers to be found as selling now is the name of the game. The usual positive Thanksgiving week period is not happening this year. We are short term oversold but with the gap down today it appears lower prices are in the offing. My SPY December calls are now even bigger losers and there is little hope of this trade turning around. Maybe a gap opening tomorrow would save the day but that isn't going to happen. The game has changed and we'll have to see just how low we go. GE off over an 1/8 today and the volume remains heavy. Maybe I'll step in here next month. Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar turned around. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we're at the point of either a double bottom or the market will continue to collapse from here. the fact that the summation index made it almost back through the zero line but turned around is a big negative. It looks like I'm headed for yet another losing trade this year. Despite the fact that there is well over four weeks left in the December option cycle, we've already dropped so much that a minor miracle will have to occur just to break even. Looking at the bigger picture, the S&P 500 now has a huge double top put in on a weekly basis. The measuring objective is much lower than where we right now. That is what we have to look forward to in the weeks and months ahead. The normal bullish seasonality is not going to work this time around. There will be plenty of excuses but at least be aware of what is going on. Rallies are getting sold. I'd expect more selling tomorrow ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. There is nowhere to hide. Europe and Asia were sold off as it is a global liquidation of stocks. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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