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Friday, November 16, 2018

More back and forth for the market on expiration Friday but the Dow did manage a gain of 124 points on pretty good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  the overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the red.  The summation index is moving up but without any conviction.  My SPY December calls are still showing a gain.  The VIX had a pretty good drop today but we didn't see the price gains that you would expect.  Not sure what that means.  RUT did finish higher and that's a plus.  The market is still trying to figure out what to do here as we have positive seasonal effects being weighed down by all the worldwide uncertainty.  It would help the bullish cause if the S&P 500 could get back above its 200 day moving average.  GE dropped more than 1/8 and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold was up $7 as the US dollar dropped again.  The XAU was up over a point, while GDX gained almost 1/3.  Volume was good.  It appears that I've missed the GDX January call trade if we continue higher from here in the gold shares.  I'll just have to wait and see if it gets oversold again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Two days into this trade and it is going OK for now.  Next week is usually positive but you never know what headline can come out of left field over the weekend.  I suppose that could work both ways.  The question for me is whether to simply get out of this trade before the end of next week or hold it longer.  As long as the summation index continues higher I'll favor bullish outcomes.  But to really turn bullish I'd have to see the VIX get below its 200 day average and break the 15 level.  I do not think that is going to happen anytime soon.  AAPL has had a couple of up days and if that can get going to the upside it would drag tech stocks along with it.  But it hasn't happened yet.  There is room for the short term technical indicators on the S&P 500 to move up.  That's a plus.  I guess I'll have to look things over this weekend and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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