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Monday, November 26, 2018

We got a much needed bounce today as the Dow soared 354 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  One day does not make a trend so we'll have to see if we get any follow through.  Once again I cannot stress the importance for the bulls for things to turn around here.  If we fail to hold the lows there will be plenty of more trouble.  the potential for a double bottom exist but it hasn't been proven yet.  My SPY December calls are deeply in the red.  Only a stunning year end rally into expiration will save them.  GE was flat on the session on very heavy volume.  It did finish off of its lows though.  I'm looking for a bottom here in December to make a longer term investment.  Gold finished little changed on the day as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A rally that springs out of nowhere is a classic bear market move.  However if we continue higher from here it could validate the potential double bottom.  So we'll simply just have to wait and see.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are trying to turn back up.  We've got the Fed head Powell speaking on Wednesday and that has some market moving potential.  Later on this weekend the US and China will sit down for a chat.  What happens there probably has more importance for the market at this stage.  On the economic front we'll get housing data and the Fed minutes on Thursday.  So there's a lot to digest after the long holiday weekend.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see if that continues tomorrow. 

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