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Wednesday, December 19, 2018

The Fed spoke and the market didn't like what it heard.  The Dow fell 351 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Very oversold, staying that way and the long awaited bounce is way past due.  Perhaps the market will crash but I'm not betting on it.  I did place an order for the SPY January calls at a price that I did not expect to get filled.  But it did.  If 2500 is the level where the decline stops in the S&P for a while, this trade will work out.  If not, it's another loser.  We are so technically blown out here that I decided to give this idea a chance.  If we see a huge rally out of nowhere in the next couple of days, I should be out.  The price is where I bought it.  GE saw a nice gain of over 1/3 on very heavy volume.  Money is starting to come back into GE.  Gold dropped a bit, while the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU got creamed and lost 4 points.  GDX dropped 1 1/8 on very heavy volume.  Perhaps there will be a chance for the GDX January calls after all.  But I'll have to wait for the short term indicators to get oversold and they're not there yet.  Mentally I'm still a little slow.  So here I am in another trade that I certainly didn't expect.  The trend is down for stocks and I'm trying to take the other side of that.  Any kind of gain for this idea has got to be taken because we are in a very strange market environment.  Seasonality has been thrown out the window and the negative tone for equities persists.  There's plenty of time for this trade to work out but it would take a complete turnaround of the current market psychology for that to happen.  I just don't see it at this point.  Like I said, if 2500 is the stopping point for now, the trade could work.  But you can easily make a case for 2400 too.  I'm not sure what I was thinking when I put the order in but I did not expect that it would be filled.  We'll just have to see where things go from here.  With the oversold condition at the moment, being as extreme at it is, there is a chance for success.  We'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in overnight trade.  We'll keep an eye on how these markets react to the Fed tonight.  

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