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Friday, December 21, 2018

Down, down, down she goes as the Dow lost 414 points on the heaviest volume in years.  Expiration heavy, selling heavy, who knows?  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower with a vengeance and it's already below the zero line.  I keep thinking that this can't just go on but it does.  Not even a day of rally for stocks as the bloodbath continues.  I really don't know what to say because oversold and staying that way seems beyond what we've got going here.  No bounce, no nothing.  My SPY January calls have lost half their value.  I doubt that we'll see another miracle comeback.  This was a trade that I should never have even put in.  I don't know what it will take for buyers to return.  We haven't even seen the usual short covering rally.  Interesting times.  GE lost about thirty cents and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold fell a bout eight bucks as the US dollar was stronger.  The XAU lost 1 1/8, while GDX dropped about 1/4.  Volume was a bit above average.  I'm still considering the GDX January calls but may look to February too.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, still not 100%.  Quite a week as we are in market free fall.  The sidelines are really the place to be unless you're short.  There's not telling how low this will go.  I thought 2500 might hold things and my next level was 2400.  We're almost there.  The 200 week moving average comes in at 2350.  Let's face it, it's all a guess because the market forces are beyond the numbers at this point.  The VIX closed above 30.  The McClellan oscillator will be in the negative 300's.  It could go to the negative 400's because I've seen that before.  But once we get to the bottom there, a bounce will occur.  Maybe next week, maybe not.  It will be a holiday trading week.  Normally I'd say it will be thinly traded but not in this kind of market.  Whatever upside we see probably won't be enough to save my SPY January calls though.  This has been the most bearish December that I can remember.  When the bulls don't show up for Christmas, it means nothing be trouble going forward.  And we've already seen plenty of trouble already.  So like I said, it will be interesting.  Asia was lower with the exception of Hong Kong.  Europe was up overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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