Monday, December 31, 2018
A positive close to 2018 as the Dow gained 265 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index back around to the upside. The internal components are still weak though for this indicator. Any advance here will most likely be short lived. My SPY January calls are still well in the red. The plan is to sell them on a pop up to start the new year if it occurs. This will be a losing trade but not losing as much as it once was. Poor timing on the entry and a trade that really should have never happened. GE was up a few cents and the volume remains heavy here. Gold was up a touch as the US dollar was lower. The XAU added a point, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was above average. There remains interest in the gold shares however GDX is at some major resistance and I don't think that it will break right through. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Glad to see the 2018 trading year end as I incurred plenty of losses. It was my worst year ever for losing money. Nothing I did turned out to be right. I hung on to losers. I let winners turn into losers. My stop losses were hit on a regular basis. I was not up to the challenge that is trading. The trade that I'm going to carry over to the new year will be another loser. But as long as it doesn't turn into a big loss I'll be satisfied that I at least did the right thing. We'll see. The VIX continues to fall and that's a plus for the bulls. But I don't expect any kind of extended rally here. There is plenty of overhead resistance on all the major stock index charts. The S&P has a down trend line to contend with and major resistance between 2600-2650. And we're only at 2500. I'd expect the market to trend sideways here for a while. Once we get a short term top here in the next few days we'll have the channel parameters. The bottom is 2350. Tomorrow is a holiday and we'll see how it goes on Wednesday. Asia and Europe were generally higher in the markets that were open. Happy New Year everybody.
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