Thursday, December 20, 2018
The decline just keeps on going as the Dow fell 464 points on extremely heavy volume again. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. I don't know how low it can go. Buyers have disappeared in the stock market. We are seeing a collapse and that was a slight possibility that became reality. Just how far down we go isn't clear because we should have seen some kind of bounce and it just doesn't happen. Blown out on all the technical indicators to the downside. It will end eventually but in this kind of market environment it is better to just step aside. My SPY January calls are losers but they could possibly make it back to break even when the bounce gets going. Or not. Oversold, staying that way and there is no bottom for now. GE lost 1/4 and the volume remains very heavy. Gold found buyers on the stock market decline. The US dollar was lower. The XAU rose 3 1/8, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was heavy as we saw a reversal of yesterdays price drop. I'm still going to have to wait for the short term indicators to get oversold here before attempting the GDX calls. Gold will find buyers as long as the volatility lasts and the market keeps dropping. Mentally I'm feeling better. Extremely heavy volume this week so far as the players are getting things done before the holiday week to finish out 2018. Selling is the name of the game for now. I still think we'll see quite a bounce once it gets going. The trouble is that it looks like there's no bottom in sight despite all the indicators that say we should have saw one already. But the market goes where it wants. Rallies will be sold anyway until further notice. The VIX made it up to 30 today and I don't know how much higher it will go. All the major indices have tops below tops and 50 day moving averages below 200 day moving averages. So there is no guessing when it comes to what kind of trend we are in. I'm trying the SPY calls just for a bounce but my entry timing obviously was off. We'll see how it goes form here. The next idea for now is going back to the SPY puts when the VIX hits 16. That is a long way from here. Both Europe and Asia were lower last night. I don't see any change in that either on the horizon. We'll see how expiration goes tomorrow as we close out the trading week.
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